UK (Parliament Poltiics Magazine) – Conservatives fall to fourth place in new YouGov survey, outpaced by Reform, Labour, and Lib Dems, sparking concerns over Kemi Badenoch’s fading influence.
As reported by The Telegraph, YouGov’s latest poll places the Tories in fourth position, marking their worst showing in six years as voter confidence continues to decline.
What did the YouGov survey reveal about the Tories’ collapse?
According to polling from May 18 and 19, the Tories have slipped behind three parties, repeating a slump last seen in June 2019 amid Brexit turmoil.
A YouGov poll of 2,222 adults shows Reform UK leading with 29%, gaining a point from last week and widening its lead over Labour, now at 22%.
Kemi Badenoch’s party dropped two points since last week and now polls at 16%. They have been overtaken by the Liberal Democrats, who gained one point to reach 17%.
The Tories have not placed fourth in YouGov polling since June 2019, when Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party briefly claimed the lead.
The survey followed the Tories’ heavy defeat in the European elections, where the party won less than 9% of the vote, prompting Baroness May to resign as prime minister.
What did pollster Luke Tryl say about Tory collapse and Badenoch’s leadership?
Pollster Luke Tryl said the UK’s political landscape has been overturned, describing the changes as “previously mind-blowing.”
He warned the Tories face a fate similar to France’s Republicans due to a total loss of support. Mr Tryl said the party “needs a strategy out of it” to recover.
What did Reform UK’s surge mean for the future of the Tories?
Electoral Calculus reckons that, based on the poll, the Tories would hold just 17 seats in a general election, while Reform UK would dominate with 346 seats.
Ms Badenoch faces increasing scrutiny as she works to rebuild the party after its worst general election performance last year, with poor results continuing into this month’s local elections.
Reform’s growing influence has complicated her mission, with Sir Keir Starmer himself calling Mr Farage’s party the main opposition.
In this month’s local elections, Mr Farage won 677 council seats and gained control of 10 councils, dealing a fresh setback to the Tories and raising questions about Ms Badenoch’s future.
Nick Clegg’s views on the future of UK coalition governments
Former Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg said Tuesday that another coalition government is “bound to happen again.”
He was deputy prime minister during the Tory-Lib Dem coalition from 2010 to 2015. In the next election, his party was reduced to just eight seats.
Mr Clegg said, “You’ve got four, five, six-party politics trapped within this first-past-the-post system. So I think it’s inevitable that it will happen again.”
He added, “And I think in the end politicians of all parties need to ask themselves if you have some political capital, do you try to use that to put your ideas into practice, or do you just hoard it in the luxury of opposition?”
What did Reform UK say about the Conservative Party’s future?
A Reform spokesman stated, “We don’t usually comment on a minor party, however, this is the end of the Conservative Party. It’s quite clear now that only one party can beat Labour at the next general election and that’s Reform UK.”
What did Luke Tryl reveal about voter uncertainty in British politics?
Luke Tryl, the executive director of More in Common UK stated, “Only 13 per cent of Britons are confident Keir Starmer will remain in post after the next election, while a striking 41 per cent say they simply don’t know what the next elected government will look like.”
He said, “In fact, the public rate Nigel Farage’s chances of becoming prime minister as highly as those of the current PM, with Reform voters particularly convinced their man will be walking into Downing Street.”
Mr Tryl added, “It’s yet another sign of the Reform leader’s ability to cast a political shadow far larger than his party’s presence in Westminster.”