Scotland’s independence remains one of the UK’s important political topics. While a majority of voters chose to remain part of the UK in the independence referendum held in 2014, recent socio-economic factors and the cultural nature of society in Scotland and the UK have developed an environment conducive to discussion.
The campaign for a second referendum has been gathering pace since 2014, mobilizing voter support due to increasing public attitudes suggesting change. Specifically, the impacts of Brexit have altered the circumstances related to independence and the power of devolved government.
To consider the possibility and all related changes in coming to a conclusion on Scottish independence will require first a clear examination of the current political circumstances in relation to anticipated future circumstances.
Will Scottish Independence Happen?
For Scotland, independence is neither a certainty nor impossible. The answer relies on a series of political negotiations, public opinion, and the ability to gain legal approval. The Scottish Government, led by the Scottish National Party (SNP), and more assertive in its demand for the right to hold another independence referendum, or “IndyRef2.
Whatever you call it, a second referendum, like the first one, will require the consent of the UK Government under the UK’s constitutional arrangements. In the previous years, there have been rising political tensions between Edinburgh and Westminster; an agreement or consent from Westminster is never certain. The majority of people in Scotland accept independence in an opinion poll at some point in the future, the path may still be slow and complicated when it comes time to put it politically and legally into practice.
Political Momentum and Independence Demands
The SNP is still leading the independence movement, stating that Scotland has a right to self-government. The growth of the pro-independence voices has been fueled by dissatisfaction with the UK government’s policies and agenda, especially around Brexit. On the contrary, the Labour Party and the Conservative Party are pro-union at both levels, and have stated that independence would be detrimental to the economy, weaken the UK, and undermine anything Scots. The political momentum is there, but contested and various ideas of a legitimate route to independence mean the question for now remains hanging.
Trends in Public Opinion
Voter opinion about independence has changed over time as a result of Brexit, economic uncertainty, and other political developments. It should be noted that voter opinion depends on a number of factors and is not always static. There is evidence of support for independence fluctuating and often polling in 50-50 territory.
Younger voters are much more positive about independence and more likely to give it their approval than older voters, which implies that, with demographic change, the independence campaign is a long-term possibility. However, every voter likes the stability that comes from being involved in an established political situation, so there may be some voters who wish to stay part of the UK’s status quo.
Legal and constitutional obstacles
The Scotland Act 1998 expressly makes no provision for the Scottish Parliament to hold an independence referendum without approval from Westminster Parliament and represents a meaningful legal obstacle. Most recently, the Supreme Court of the UK has ruled that something of this nature cannot be held unilaterally by the Scottish government. If political and public support for independence develop, there could be issues around constitutionality to resolve, presumably and hopefully in negotiated settlements.
Economic Factors in the Independence Debate
Economic factors are important in the independence debate. Advocates of independence argue that Scotland can emerge as a successful independent country and that Scottish resources such as North Sea oil, renewables, and fishing will mean that independence can be successful. Critics of independence raise economic issues, especially the issues associated with currency, trading relationships, and public spending. The decision for a Scottish Government will rest on balancing the desire for independence with the economic conditions of being a stand-alone state.
The Implications of Brexit
The independence debate has changed significantly due to Brexit. Scotland voted in favor of remaining within the EU in 2016, and it was taken out of the EU with the rest of the UK. Pro-independence campaigners argue that Scotland was taken out of the EU and this is a compelling case for independence and rejoining the EU. Detractors of independence argue that independence from the UK could create a new set of trade and border issues, especially if Scotland rejoined the EU at the same time that the rest of the UK was outside the EU.
Future Scenarios for Scottish Independence
When we consider the future of Scottish independence we can formulate the future across a series of scenarios. Depending on negotiation, popular support and future political events each scenario may entail different outcomes. Some scenarios are clear independence pathways, others mean Scotland stays in the UK with greater powers of autonomy.
Scenario 1: A Negotiated Independence Referendum
It is probable that the future scenario is an agreement to a second referendum (whereby the Scottish and UK Governments are voting partners in a referendum). This will lay ground on the precedent established by the 2014 referendum, making the vote valid in Scotland and in the international community.
For the scenario of a negotiated second vote to occur, the UK Government would need to change its position and agree public desire constitutes enough for another vote. Moving down this pathway will require a combination of polls persisting with a strong level of majority (in the opinion of a poll for independence) and a level of sustained political pressure over the course of an election cycle.
Scenario 2: Independence Is Negotiated Further
In a scenario where the referendum produced a majority vote for independence, Scotland and the UK would enter into negotiations to settle currency, border issues, defense, EU membership status, and so on. Negotiations on these matters may take years in some cases, as we have seen in other country separations.
Success will be determined by both sides’ willingness to negotiate and agree on an appropriate deal as well as on Scotland’s success in securing international recognition as an independent country.
Scenario 3: Additional Devolution Without Independence
One possibility is that Scotland remains part of the UK and is granted additional devolved powers. This involves further control over taxation and welfare and the ability to negotiate foreign policy issues like trade deals. For some parties, this could suffice as autonomy while avoiding the upheaval associated with independence. However, it may not be a compromise that would satisfy those wanting full separation from the UK.
Scenario 4: Continued Status Quo
Under the status quo scenario, Scotland simply remains within the UK under the current devolved settlement. This could occur because public support for independence declines or because political and legal hurdles prevent a new legal basis for a referendum. Although this form of stability could demonstrate stability, it may still not prevent political tensions from continually emerging as the independence question continues to constrict Scottish politics.
Scenario 5: Stepping Stone to Independence
Rather than immediately pursue independence, Scotland can progressively assert more autonomy every so often until that independence becomes an obvious next step. This could involve extending sector-by-sector control over associated policies, building up parallel institutions, and building up international relationships on its own. This approach may indeed limit economic shocks and result in less disruption, but a great deal of strategic planning will need to take place over the long term.
Key Factors Influencing the Future of Independence
There are many factors that will determine if Scotland will eventually become independent. These features could include public will, economic projections, constitutional developments, or international reports and recognition; these are among the variables to consider to get a sense of the likely end result from the proposals conveyed in this report.
1. Ongoing Public Support and Electoral Mandate
Most importantly, sustained public support for independence will be needed. Simply having one public polling increase does not equal public support for independence, but sustained majority support from the Scottish people will provide a broader base of support for a referendum. Also, if a pro-independence party can consistently win elections while making clear promises about withdrawal from the UK, then the political pressure on a UK Government (for example, encouraging a second referendum at subsequent elections) will increase the likelihood that a vote will be allowed.
2. The UK Government’s Position
The UK government’s position is critical. Westminster is the legal authority for constitutional matters, so for a lawful referendum, there will have to be consent to hold one from Westminster. Political change at the UK level could affect the UK government’s position on the issue.
For example, a possible future change in the party in power in the UK could impact the overall UK governing stance on the matter. A more cooperative future in working together between London and Edinburgh could be established, which could allow room for negotiation. Alternatively, limited flexibility and continued resistance to negotiate could suggest that prolonged debate around the matter could follow.
3. Economic Projections
Economic forecasts will also be important in shaping voter opinions. With optimistic forecasts for an independent Scotland, such as strong renewable energy exports, tourism expansion, and innovation support, more may be garnered. However, fears over currency dissipation, trade barriers, and public finances could lead voters to reject the risk wholly and/or limit their enthusiasm for independence.
4. International Recognition and EU Membership
An independent Scotland could not operate effectively in the global environment without international recognition. The ability for Scotland to re-enter the EU is one of the central arguments for supporters of independence, but this cannot be presumed. EU accession would require certain thresholds to be met, and every member state would need to unanimously agree, something that may be difficult if some states have their own views on their national separatist movements.