Gorton and Denton by-election result has sent shockwaves through Westminster in the early hours, as Hannah Spencer, Green Party candidate and professional plumber, won with 14,980 votes taking one of Labour’s safest seat. Ms Spencer’s 41 per cent vote share, secured the first Green Party victory in a UK by-election.
Reform UK candidate Matt Goodwin secured second position with 10,578 votes, representing 29 per cent of the total. Labour Party candidate Angeliki Stogia secured third position with 9,364 votes, representing 26 per cent of the total, however this was down a whopping 25 per cent on the 2024 General Election. Conservative Party recorded 706 votes, down two per cent, the lowest historical performance for the party in this constituency. Voter turnout was 47.62 per cent. The 2026 result confirms a loss of over 9,000 votes for Labour, although on a lower turnout.
Critics of the Prime Minister were quick to blame his unpopularity, series of U-turns and failure to pick Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham as the candidate for the loss. Numerous reports indicate this decision generated friction among local activists and the electorate.
Richard Burgon MP identified factionalism as a primary driver of the defeat. Burgon stated that the exclusion of preferred local figures represents a systemic error in party management.
While Karl Turner MP, described the result as a “catastrophic”. He told the BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Well it’s catastrophic, isn’t it? I mean, that’s the truth. It couldn’t be any worse.Having the Greens in Manchester is the worst result we could have expected or we wanted, frankly. But you know, the reality is, Burnham was blocked. He shouldn’t have been, in my view.”
Some commentators suggested a significant shift from Labour to the Green Party among Muslim voters. Blaming this movement on the Labour Party’s stance on the Gaza conflict. While others suggested Labour’s failure to get to grips with cost-of-living increases and perceived economic mismanagement was turning off working-class voters, allowing the Green Party to successfully combine these grievances into a winning electoral strategy.
Hannah Spencer’s victory is framed by the Green Party as a national template for future electoral cycles. Zack Polanski, Leader of the Green Party, projected that similar swings in a general election would result in a substantial increase in Green MPs, although he stopped short of claiming that they could for the next Government.
This projection assumes consistent voter behaviour across varied geographical regions. The campaign utilised local identity as a primary engagement tool in an area with high working-class and muslim populations. Spencer’s background as a local plumber was contrasted with that of established political figures.
Reform UK’s solid performance indicates a consolidation of right-leaning voters who remain dissatisfied with the Conservative Party. Matt Goodwin’s second-place finish confirms Reform UK as a significant electoral force in traditionally Labour-held territories. The Conservative Party’s decline to 706 votes indicates a near-total collapse of the party’s infrastructure and appeal in the region. However, this result, although it hints at a potential problem for Reform, who have underperformed from their polling figures in both this by-election and last year’s by-election in Wales, suggests a strong anti-Reform vote.
The by-election was not without controversy. Electoral monitoring was conducted by Democracy Volunteers, who recorded 32 incidents of family voting across 545 observed interactions. If correct, this represents the highest recorded frequency of family voting in the organisation’s ten-year monitoring history. Family voting is defined as the influence or observation of a voter’s ballot by another family member within the polling booth.
The defeat in Gorton and Denton follows a torrid few months for Sir Keir Starmer and his administration, not least the continuing revelations about former Labour grandee Peter Mandelson, from the Epstein Files and speculation about his position as leader of the Labour Party.
Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University, one of the UK’s leading psephologists, in an article for the BBC, said the result of the by-election confirms the political volatility in the UK and suggests that the established parties are still failing to address the concerns of ordinary voters. If this trend continues, then the Gorton and Denton Earthquake will serve as a case study for the fragmentation of the modern British political coalition – and another nail in the coffin of the two-party system, as the challenger parties (the Green Party and Reform) force their way onto the political stage.
The Gorton and Denton Earthquake, as the Green Party overturn huge Labour majority
