Labour leadership contest, potential runners and riders

The Irish State coach has returned to the Royal Mews, the velvet robes have been packed away, and the ceremonial mace sits once again in the House of Commons. Yet, as the dust settles on the 2026 State Opening of Parliament, the atmosphere in Westminster is anything but settled. The future of the Prime Minister is hanging by a thread, and, the prospect of a Labour leadership contest feels ever closer.

So, who are the potential runners and riders, should Sir Keir Starmer stumble?

Angela Rayner – Lioness of the North
The popular former Deputy Prime Minister, who was forced to resign in September 2025 amid a swirling controversy regarding her personal tax affairs, has been officially cleared of any wrongdoing by HMRC. The timing could not be more fortuitous for the MP for Ashton-under-Lyne, whose absence from the front bench has been keenly felt by the party’s left-leaning wing.

Seen as an effective communicator and someone who can reach the left of the Party, trade unions and some elements of the electorate who deserted Labour in the recent elections, Rayner is one of the front-runners to replace Starmer and as her supporters point out, is untainted by many of the recent mistakes made by the Government including the Mandelson scandal.

Wes Streeting – Favoured candidate of the right
If Rayner is the champion of the soft left, Wes Streeting is the undisputed heavyweight of the party’s center-right. The Health Secretary has spent the last year building a formidable operation, and Westminster insiders suggest he may have already secured the 20 percent of Labour MP nominations required to trigger a formal challenge.

Streeting is widely regarded as the party’s best communicator, a politician who can navigate the pitfalls of a live television interview with a level of polish that few of his colleagues can match.

However, his path to the crown is not without obstacles. His historical friendship with Peter Mandelson remains a point of contention for many on the left, who view him as a “Blairite throwback”. Furthermore, his stance on international issues, including Gaza and welfare reform, has seen him attempt to pivot toward a more left-wing position in recent months, leading to accusations of political opportunism from his detractors.

Andy Burnham – The King of the North
In every Labour leadership discussion, the name Andy Burnham loiters like a ghost at the feast. The Mayor of Greater Manchester frequently tops opinion polls as the public’s preferred choice for Prime Minister, possessing a level of national name recognition that many cabinet ministers can only envy. However, Burnham faces a significant constitutional hurdle: he is not currently an MP.

The “King of the North” was blocked by the National Executive Committee (NEC) from standing in a by-election earlier this year, a move widely seen as an attempt by the current leadership to keep a dangerous rival at bay. For Burnham to mount a challenge, he would first need to find a seat and return to the Commons: a process that requires time and a cooperative party machine. Consequently, Burnham’s supporters are calling for a managed resignation timetable rather than an immediate departure, aiming to create a window of opportunity for their man to return to Westminster.

Beyond the frontrunners, several other figures are beginning to emerge as serious contenders or influential in the process.

Darren Jones – Continuity Starmer
The Chief Secretary to the Treasury has seen his stock rise over the last session. Seen as uber loyal and a safe pair of hands on the media, Jones is increasingly viewed as an “adult in the room”. In an era of political volatility, his technocratic competence and calm demeanour have made him an attractive prospect for MPs who are tired of factional drama. Yet, he lacks any significant support on the backbenchers and if Labour go through the drama of dumping Starmer, would they really go for the continuity candidate?

Shabana Mahmood – Highly effective Minister
The Justice Secretary has played a key part in the Party’s attempts to tackle illegal immigration. Seen as a formidable operator who understands how to pull the levers of power better than almost anyone else. She certainly has the gravitas to be the leader, but lacks the support across much of the soft left. While Mahmood could be a dark horse candidate, offering a steady hand and a strategic mind to a party in desperate need of both, at tilt at the leadership seems unlikely.

Ed Miliband – The comeback kid
Having already led the party once, Miliband occupies a unique position as a seasoned elder statesman who still commands respect on the left due to his commitment to Net Zero and green energy policies. While many dismiss the idea of a second Miliband leadership, others point to his popularity among Party members, and is seen as someone who could bridge the divide between the warring factions on the left and right of the party.

Catherine West – The Stalking Horse who didn’t run
While the heavyweights prepare for battle, the role of Catherine West cannot be ignored. The MP for Hornsey and Friern Barnet was the first to openly suggest she would trigger a leadership contest herself if no other senior figures moved. Though she ultimately backed down, her intervention will be seen as the necessary catalyst to replace Starmer – a stalking horse candidate who never ran.

The Path Ahead
The rules of the Labour Party state that a leadership challenge can be triggered if 81 MPs submit a formal request. With current tallies hovering just above that mark, the party is entering a period of extreme uncertainty. The legislative agenda set out in the King’s Speech requires a disciplined government to see it through, but discipline is a rare commodity in Westminster today.

The coming weeks will determine whether the Labour Party undergoes a managed transition or a chaotic implosion. With Angela Rayner now cleared and Wes Streeting reportedly ready to move, the starting gun seems imminent. As one veteran MP remarked in the central lobby this morning, “It’s not just about who leads the party; it’s about what the party actually stands for.” In this “Game of Thrones,” the stakes for the country could not be higher.