UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Energy Secretary Ed Miliband admits his Doncaster North seat is at risk as local election results show Reform UK gaining ground in key Labour strongholds.
Ed Miliband, MP for Doncaster North since 2005, has admitted he could lose his seat to Reform UK in the next general election. He described the party as a national-level threat to Labour’s future.
What did Ed Miliband say about losing to Reform UK?
Speaking on The Rest is Politics, Ed Miliband raised concerns about Reform UK, saying,
“Look, I think Reform are a threat, yeah. I think Reform are a threat across the country.”
He said,
“I had this conversation in the pub last Friday night with this guy, and the conversation went like this – it went through the boats, the NHS and then it went to I think the deepest part of this which is he said ‘I feel that we have had governments of different parties, Labour and Tory, life is so hard for me, how can you answer that question?’”
Mr Miliband stated,
“And I explained how we are trying to answer that question. He said ‘For me that is the test, I didn’t vote in 2024’. I think he voted for Reform in the local elections. I wrote this book when I lost the election, called Go Big, and for me, he epitomised the point of Go Big, which is he was saying ‘look, whether it is an ability to afford a house, make ends meet, the cost of living, public services, I feel like life is so hard and you guys aren’t addressing that’.”
What did Electoral Calculus reveal about Ed Miliband’s seat?
An analysis of the May 1 local elections, showing major Reform UK gains, indicates Ed Miliband is likely to lose his Doncaster North seat next election.
Electoral Calculus examined local election results from numerous wards. They used this data to predict outcomes in 145 Westminster constituencies where voting took place.
The study found that Reform would win 46% of the vote in Doncaster if general election voting matched local polls. Mr Miliband would receive just 29%.
How are Labour’s policy shifts impacting Miliband amid growing Reform support?
Ed Miliband has been a leading figure in Sir Keir Starmer’s government. He has pushed hard on the net zero initiative. However, his approach has sparked concerns, with colleagues worried that his plans may be unpopular with voters and could slow economic growth, even as he argues that green policies will bring financial gains.
Labour’s decision to dilute net zero commitments and back Heathrow’s third runway undermined his position.
His comments come in the wake of Prime Minister identifying Reform as Labour’s key challenge. On Thursday, Sir Keir gave a speech in the northwest, targeting the party and its leader Nigel Farage.
The Prime Minister condemned Reform’s economic plans, comparing them to Liz Truss’s policies and recalling the market disruption caused by her 2022 mini-budget.
How is Downing Street framing Reform ahead of the next election?
Downing Street is linking Reform to the Tories to influence voter perception. This move signals how the political story will unfold before the next election. The contest is framed as Labour versus Reform, left against right.
The attacks followed Nigel Farage’s bold move, pledging to restore winter fuel payments for pensioners and scrap the two-child benefit cap, directly challenging Labour.
Nigel Farage’s response to Sir Keir’s speech
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage hit back at Sir Keir Starmer’s speech, labelling it “dirty tricks” and calling the approach “Project Fear 2.0,” referring to the 2016 campaign to remain in the EU.
What did Luke Tryl say about public confidence in British politics?
Luke Tryl, the executive director of More in Common UK stated,
“This research underscores just how uncertain the public feels about the direction of British politics. Only 13 per cent of Britons are confident Keir Starmer will remain in post after the next election, while a striking 41 per cent say they simply don’t know what the next elected government will look like.”
He added,
“In fact, the public rate Nigel Farage’s chances of becoming prime minister as highly as those of the current PM, with Reform voters particularly convinced their man will be walking into Downing Street. It’s yet another sign of the Reform leader’s ability to cast a political shadow far larger than his party’s presence in Westminster.”