UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Ex-British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak tells the COVID inquiry that ministers were warned against introducing COVID measures “too early” as he gives evidence.
As reported by Nicole Wootton-Cane and Kate Devlin of The Independent, former Chancellor Rishi Sunak told the inquiry that ministers were advised not to introduce Covid measures too early to protect public confidence.
The development comes after a previous report found that more than 20,000 lives in England could have been saved if the March 2020 lockdown had been introduced just one week earlier.
What did Rishi Sunak tell the Covid inquiry about early pandemic decisions?
On Monday, the ex-Prime Minister will appear before the Covid-19 inquiry as scrutiny of the government’s handling of the pandemic continues.
During his tenure as chancellor, Rishi Sunak rolled out the Eat Out to Help Out discount scheme, which scientists warned was “highly likely” to have contributed to more Covid infections and deaths.
Giving evidence previously, Sir Patrick Vallance said the programme had undermined the government’s guidance that social mixing posed a high risk.
Mr Sunak defended the scheme as a “micro-policy” within the government’s overall plan to ease lockdown restrictions. The inquiry will review the pandemic response, which caused economic shutdowns and claimed over 220,000 lives in Britain, and is expected to continue until summer 2026.
The ex-Prime Minister told the inquiry that he faced an “enormous amount of uncertainty” during the early days of the pandemic. He said this was the top challenge confronting him as chancellor in March 2020.
Mr Sunak expressed gratitude for the “extraordinary effort” of advisers and civil servants during the crisis, adding,
“We knew there was going to be an economic shock, our understanding was that it was going to be temporary. What we were focused on doing was making sure the temporary shock did not have long-term economic consequences.”
The former chancellor said his team had to act quickly, accepting that they “couldn’t get everything right immediately.”
Mr Sunak told the inquiry that time was limited and he did not want “perfect to be the enemy of good.” He argued that acceptance of imperfection was necessary during the pandemic.
The ex-chancellor said the Treasury “couldn’t drive the conversation” in the early days of Covid. He added that the Department for Health led the response, with his team relying on advice from scientific advisers.
Mr Sunak recalled that the inquiry was told the scientific community advised Covid measures should not be introduced “too early” and needed to be sustained for a period, with the timing “right” to maintain public support.
The former prime minister said,
“Then ultimately, even at the end that last few days, I think the prime minister said to people it was a voluntary social distancing and to avoid, hospitality and leisure on the basis, on the advice from the scientists. And schools were not closed at first.
Then the advice was that they should be closed. And that was followed, immediately.”
He added,
“And then even at that point, there was a belief that that voluntary social distancing, together with school closures, if there was, I think the number was 75%, compliance, would be sufficient to manage the virus, to deliver the health outcomes. And then 2 or 3 days after that was said, it was decided that wasn’t going to be, achievable, which is why you had to move to a full mandatory lockdown.”
He said his early pandemic focus was on safeguarding people’s jobs, household incomes, and businesses. Mr Sunak added there was no “perfect science” in the decisions, and he was constantly weighing complex economic trade-offs.
He added,
“It wasn’t going to be possible to save every single person’s job, and people were going to experience economic hardship as a result of what was happening.”
The former chancellor told the inquiry that preventing mass unemployment, which he described as the “biggest fear,” was crucial, warning that a job crisis could have sparked social unrest.
He said the state was justified in heavy intervention during the pandemic, despite it conflicting with his fiscal Conservative instincts. He described the crisis as “unique,” requiring measures for the country’s long-term interest.
Mr Sunak described the pandemic period as “intense and filled with anxiety,” calling the time “acutely stressful.” He also referred to the gilt market as “turbulent” amid unprecedented early-2020 turmoil.
“I’d been chancellor for, you know, what felt like five seconds and then you could see a very material tightening in UK financial conditions.
And in the end, we, you know, we organised with the, the Bank of England something called the Ways and Means facility, which I’ve, talked about in my evidence, which thankfully we never needed to, to use, but essentially as a backstop for the government if it can’t raise the money it needs on the bond markets, it can go to the Bank of England, instead for a temporary period of time.
And it was last used again in the financial crisis,”
he continued.
The former prime minister stressed that economic models provided to policymakers should include more context on underlying assumptions. Sunak said he wanted to scrutinize the models as he would in his previous career, having worked at Goldman Sachs and two hedge funds.
He said,
“I’m someone who’s comfortable with models and as you know, I spent a career before politics having to build them, interpret them, use them to make decisions. It’s all very well projecting things to happen in the future.
The model says X. The model says Y. Well, that’s a function of the assumptions that have been fed into the model. And as policymakers, ultimately these things are judgments – those assumptions are judgments.”
Mr Sunak added,
“And it should be for the elected politicians to be the ones that ultimately say, well, I want to see a base case where the assumptions are this, this, this, and this. And because on each of those assumptions, they will be reasonable people who can disagree.”
Why is Rishi Sunak facing a Covid inquiry?
Rishi Sunak is being questioned over the “Eat Out to Help Out” scheme, as evidence suggests he did not consult government scientists and the policy may have increased COVID-19 infections and deaths.
He faces scrutiny over balancing economic reopening with public health, including claims he pushed for lifting restrictions faster than advised by scientists.
The former Prime Minister is facing questions about the March 2020 lockdown timing, when earlier action could have saved lives, and missing pandemic communications, including lost WhatsApp messages.
Mr Sunak also faced questions about furlough and business support schemes, including whether they were effective, properly targeted, and safeguarded against fraud.
How many people died from COVID-19 in the UK?
Nearly 227,000 deaths in the UK had COVID-19 listed as a cause on the death certificate between March 2020 and May 2023. Data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and previous health bodies report approximately 232,112 deaths.
Since the start of the pandemic through May 2023, the UK recorded over 208,000 excess deaths, the number of deaths above what would normally be expected.
