Since 2018 Ethiopia took a rollercoaster ride of war and peace, the pm of the country who has all the utmost power abiy ahmed ali, creating all the wars in the country has gone regional, exporting war and violence in the horn. As the the leading prosperity party born from the wombs of radical secessionist oromo politics it lost its deciving mask in months from its founding. The oromo statehood project has been there since the 1960s and the current elites believe that this is their golden time to achieve the ‘aba beyuma (state hood)’ project. The oromo elites strived to build a singular oromo nation from an elite perpective and they moderately achieved the nation oromo from the different factions of chushetic language speaking people.
Currently the oromia region in Ethiopia is one of the biggest region in the country but it has no vicinity to any of the regional ports, and this is where the hunger for a sea door arised, most of the oromo elites including jawar M have tried to create a good map connecting all of the oromo people in the horn and also a map carring a sea port in Somali land. Somaliland a defacto, which creaves for recognition by any nation in the globe has become the primary target of the oromo politics, its like supply and demand has meet mid way and shake hands. As Somaliland was eager to be recognized the country has faild to see all the misfortunes of the deal. The deal abruptly woke up the country Somalia and now Somalia is pleading to the AU stating that their sovertity is compromised. They have flagged art.2 of AU charter stating the golden principles of sovernity. Yet Ethiopia chose to undermine the AU laws and continue on erecting the ethio-somaliland deal .
Why Somaliland and what kind of port access
The gadabursi clan which lives in Ethiopia and Somali land but separated because of these two states boundaries, there is a natural urge to unite this clan under one flag and the united Somalia dream have been the promise where every Somali lean to. But for past 40 years Somalia was wreaching in to pieces than uniting, the oromo politics saw this misfortune of Somalia and aimed to seize the moment by first leasing the Somaliland port then swallow it.
The process is under the oromo national project of making the gadabursis the new oromo. During the oromo expansion its was an easy job to assimilate other identities to an oromo either by force or by a free will. Currently the oromo nation becomes so powerful even from its glorious timesin the 16-1800s. Abiy ahmed ali the 21st century luba ( an oromo leader ) of the oromo aims to expand once more.
In the oromo culture The ‘Luba’ has to expand, assimilate and seize every 8 years of hisleadership time. And the curren luba put its eye on the gedabursi clan. As of now most of the localities of the gedabursi in Ethiopia are annexed to the oromo region and the people there are given a new purgative of them being the lost tribe of oromo and some are accepting that narration, but the whole plot is to unite the whole tribe under an oromo nation state, the somlailand port which abiy ahmed ali is leasing is a dwelling of the ‘ gedabursi’, and the assimilation from the Ethiopian side is launched already. Somalilanders so eager to be an independent state jump on this time bomb deal eyes closed. The whole plot is dismember the the state and engulf everything.
Somalia a state after 40 years of internal war is trying to collect itself and work on its unity is facing a new problem where one of its sadden child Somaliland is jumping to free itself from this dream of united somlia. Somalilanders who failed to see the second move from abiy ahmed ali where the oromo national project to swallow the northern part of their country, but its is picked by Somalia and Somalia is knocking every door of the AU and the international community stating that the nations sovernighty is under a threat and its an act of war to their state, but most of the IC faild to address or pressure on their issue. Moths after the MOU deal Somalia has invited Ethiopia’s deadly enemy Egypt to the gulf.
Egypt and its interest towards Nile
The call from Somalia to egypt’s help is likeone of the wisest decision the 21st century African politics, Egypt a country who tried its luck through sudan and have got a golden second chance in entering to Ethiopian politics, Egypt has worked with every leading and opposition groups in Ethiopia except the Amharas. Egypt invested lots in these groups and ended up in being beaten its hands aafterwards, The interest of Egypt in one which is having the utmost benefit from river nile.
Ethiopia wreaking in civil wars, have brought a new strong force in the whole nation ‘The Fano’ this militant group has gained acceptance in less than two years and a militant group filled with one of the eliite fighters in the country easily forged itself to a bigger and a stronger army from the ashes. Today the fano is a well armed group where its armaments are gaind through battle capture. The Ethiopian defence force failed to suppress the fano for the past 15 months but help build the fano through its failurities. The fano is an emblem of Amhara nation, the Amhara peope belive fano is a saviour from the genocidal regime abiy ahmed ali.
AS the fano dwells in the highlands of Amhara region where river nile and the grand reinesance dam is located it makes the Amhara the local owner of the source of nile, this is where the Egypt and the Fano interest intersects. Any resourse deal has to go through the local people to bring peace and stability. After decades of Egypt looking for a group to deal or partner with has emerged finnaly. The fano has every local right to deal with Egypt and foster peace between the two countries. The national interest of Egypt and the Amhara fano fight against a genocide is aligned. The Amhara fano have no evilish idea of making the Egypt fall in a drought or have water resource issues and the army can foster a good deal between the two countries, any deal without the consent of the Amhara people will always bring a problem because the Amhara are the local owners of the water.
The case of Somalia and African unity
Africa is built under the concept of the Monrovian group ideology by accepting the colonial map as a countries boundary. According to art.2 of the AU charter it cemented the idea of protecting the sovereignty of individual states. Pm Abiy ahmed aliu has interfered in the internal issues of Somalia is trying to shamble the efforts of every Somali person towards unity. Africa a big continent of 54 states has internal secessionist movements in every country and opening a door to any new state to be formed through an external agent will collapse the whole of Africa. Therefore, pm. Abiy sinister moves towards securing a military base in somalilad will only bring heat to the horn.
The horn of Africa is a ring of fire where every contry in the horn is bleeing in a civil war. Adding another problem to this chaos will only collapse the horn and gulf of eden, the horn has 100s of millions of population in combined and war will make these people to migrate to the Europe and to the west bringing a world wide crisis. To avert this problem these three actors should work together the Amhara fano, Egypt and Somalia.