UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Top pollster Sir John Curtice says SNP faces election challenges amid police fraud investigation, warning that financial trouble could harm their campaign.
A top political analyst warns that a police inquiry could damage voter confidence and hinder the SNP’s performance in 2026.
What did John Curtice say about the SNP’s election challenge?
Professor John Curtice has suggested the ongoing Operation Branchform investigation could undermine John Swinney’s SNP from running an effective grassroots election strategy.
Polling expert Mr John said,
“Operation Branchform is a problem for the SNP, as it makes it more difficult for them to raise money. There are question marks over whether the party can be trusted with donations and whether they are being spent for the appropriate purpose.”
He stated,
“And the party, at the end of the day, will want to be able to fight the Holyrood election with as much financial heft and resource as it can possibly muster.”
Strathclyde University professor Sir John warned that the SNP’s future is uncertain, and the ongoing police inquiry could be the turning point in its battle to stay in power.
He said,
“A lack of financial resources may well make it somewhat more difficult for the party to run an effective ground war.”
Mr John continued,
“It may not be able to spend so much money on advertising or on social media. Maybe that could cost it one or two seats, and as I have explained because the prospect of there being a pro-independence majority at the moment looks as though it is literally on a knife edge that could matter.”
Is Nicola Sturgeon still under investigation as police expenses rise?
Peter Murrell, Nicola Sturgeon’s estranged husband and the SNP’s ex-chief executive, has been charged with embezzlement of SNP funds. This charge is part of a wider police inquiry into the handling of SNP donations.
The investigation has already led to multiple high-profile arrests. The charges come amid an ongoing police probe into the SNP’s financial dealings.
At least 10 senior officers are involved in the case, with the combined costs of the police investigation and prosecution exceeding £2.3 million.
SNP gains ground as Labour’s popularity declines
New figures indicate the SNP membership has dropped to 58,940, a decline from 64,525 recorded last summer.
Recent polling revealed Scottish Labour was on track for a historic win in the next Holyrood election. But trends show a drop in the party’s popularity, allowing the SNP to regain momentum.
SNP’s stance on John Swinney’s leadership
The SNP refused to comment on discussions regarding its finances.
A spokeswoman stated,
“As we approach the election, recent polling shows strong levels of support for the SNP under John Swinney’s leadership, as we deliver the progress people in Scotland deserve on the issues that matter to them.”
What did the latest FOI reveal about the cost of SNP investigations?
A Freedom of Information request has revealed that policing expenses related to the SNP probe reached at least £2,106,961 by 31 January 2025.
In response to an FOI request, the Crown Office confirmed it had spent a minimum of £206,366 on the investigation.