London (Parliament Politics Magazine) – The UK government expects up to 40,000 pupils to shift from private to state schools, with VAT set to increase private school fees.
Reports suggest officials are preparing to close private schools as a result of the government’s VAT fee increase.
As reported by The Telegraph, contingency plans are in place to manage the increased demand for state school places as more students are expected to move from private schools due to VAT fee hikes.
The Times reports that the government said smaller schools with affordable fees in highly competitive areas are most at risk.
A government spokesperson dismissed the reports, calling the claim that the government is preparing for private school closures “completely misleading.”
Over 3,000 private school students applied for state school enrolment between June and September.
The Independent Schools Council (ISC), which surveyed 900 members, reveals that another 2,500 pupils are ready to leave in the coming January.
The Times has revealed that officials are being urged to keep an eye on the stability of private schools at risk of closure and ensure state schools can accommodate all students.
According to Treasury predictions, the move is expected to result in 37,000 fewer private school pupils in the long run, representing a reduction of about six percent.
Under Labour’s new policy, the VAT exemption will be lifted in January and eliminate business rates relief for Independent schools from April, with parents expected to pay part of the expenses.
The government has still not decided to change its decision despite continued criticism from the sector.
It expects that the tax fee will bring £460 million by next year, rising to £1.7 billion by 2029-30. However, ministers have asserted that the funds will help to hire 6,500 new teachers for state schools.
The Treasury expects private school fees to increase by about 10% on average as a result of VAT, while predicting that 35,000 students will be moving to Britain state schools in the long term.
It is predicted that another 2,000 children will leave private schools, including international students who will not be joining the UK state system and domestic pupils who will opt for homeschooling.
Meanwhile, the officials believe that state schools can manage the accommodation of more students.
One government source told the press, “We have to plan for the worst. But there’s a limited amount we can do, so contingency plans are necessary. Officials are monitoring those schools most at risk of closure to help local authorities prepare better where the number in need is significantly greater.”
Last year’s IFS report revealed that the introduction of VAT could lead to between 20,000 to 40,000 students leaving private schools.
The chief executive of the Independent Schools Council expressed her concerns and stated, “I have every sympathy for local authorities worrying about an influx into schools.”
A spokesperson from the government said, “It is routine planning for government departments to use data to inform the design and implementation of a new policy and, as would be expected, we regularly monitor places across the education system.”
Further, they stated less than 0.1% of students may switch schools and the government is confident that the state sector can handle them.