UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Reform UK surges to 34% in new Ipsos poll, overtaking Labour and Conservatives, signalling a major political shift that could make Nigel Farage the next PM.
As reported by The Telegraph, a new poll suggests Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is heading for a clear majority, with over a third of voters planning to back the party in the next election.
What did the Ipsos poll reveal about Reform UK’s rise?
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has surged to 34% in an Ipsos poll, placing it nine points ahead of Labour at 25%, while the Conservatives lag at just 15%.
Reform UK has hit a record high in public backing, with polling figures that could easily translate into a clear majority for Farage in Parliament.
Analysts warn that national polls can be misleading. Voting patterns in local constituencies often diverge from the overall national averages.
Labour’s backing has plunged to levels not seen since Boris Johnson’s high point in October 2019, the poll further reveals.
The Ipsos survey of 1,180 people revealed that Reform UK could benefit from a fragmented opposition. LibDems stand at 11%, and Greens at 9%, meaning other parties may struggle to secure seats.
Both Labour and the Conservatives have seen their voter base shrink since 2024, with Labour losing 54% of its support and the Tories 48%.
Reform UK is gaining momentum by attracting 37% of former Tory voters in 2024. Labour has also lost ground, with 12% switching to Reform and 13% to smaller parties.
Mr Farage’s party has managed to retain 95% of its previous voters, showing strong party loyalty.
How was the Ipsos survey conducted, and who took part?
The survey was conducted from May 29 to June 4, before Zia Yusuf’s resignation and return as Reform chairman, and before Rachel Reeves revealed her budget plans. This marks the comeback of Ipsos’s Political Monitor, a poll conducted via an online panel chosen through random sampling methods.
Ipsos sends letters to randomly chosen households, inviting recipients to join an online panel. The data collected is adjusted to reflect the UK’s adult population by age, gender, ethnicity, and other factors.
The poll also examined the profile of Reform UK supporters. A majority are under 50, over half fall into working-class categories, and 42% lack higher education.
What did Gideon Skinner say about Reform UK’s rise and Labour’s decline?
Gideon Skinner, director of UK politics at Ipsos, stated, “The last year has indeed been a long time in politics, with our first voting intention poll since the election showing just how much the political landscape has transformed since then.”
He said, “Reform UK has continued to build on its success, helped by high levels of enthusiasm among its supporters and working-class voters in particular, and taking votes from both Labour and especially the Conservatives, who show little sign of recovery.”
Mr Skinner stated, “The disappointment with Labour is clear, even among those who voted for the party in 2024. We know from Ipsos research how difficult it has been to shift entrenched public pessimism over the cost of living, immigration, and the state of public services, and so far, Britons do not think Labour is delivering the tangible change they were hoping for in 2024.”
He added, “This is reflected in satisfaction ratings for the Government and Prime Minister that are well below the average we usually see coming up to a first anniversary. Indeed, they look remarkably similar to the poor ratings received by Gordon Brown in 2008 after the financial crash.”
What did Luke Tryl say about public uncertainty in British politics?
Luke Tryl, the executive director of More in Common UK, stated, “This research underscores just how uncertain the public feels about the direction of British politics.”
He said, “Only 13 per cent of Britons are confident Keir Starmer will remain in post after the next election, while a striking 41 per cent say they simply don’t know what the next elected government will look like.”
Mr Tryl added, “In fact, the public rates Nigel Farage’s chances of becoming prime minister as highly as those of the current PM, with Reform voters particularly convinced their man will be walking into Downing Street.”