UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Pollsters warn Labour’s move to lower the voting age to 16 could benefit smaller parties like Reform and Jeremy Corbyn in the 2029 elections.
As reported by The Independent, leading pollsters say Labour’s plan to lower the voting age could help Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn’s new party gain the most support.
Experts raised concern that Labour may miss out on gains, as Reform UK and Corbyn’s party stand to benefit most.
What did Robert Hayward say about lowering the voting age and its impact on UK politics?
Pollster and Tory peer Robert Hayward said,
“I just don’t think the policy will be as beneficial as the Labour Party thought when they first proposed it.”
He added,
“My expectation, in the multi-party political field that we have at the moment, is that the non-mainstream, non-legacy parties – such as Reform, the Green Party and Corbyn’s party – will be the beneficiaries of younger people’s willingness to vote away from the traditional parties.”
Lord Hayward said young women might support Mr Corbyn’s party, especially if it grows stronger with its focus on green issues.
He called the new party appealing to young voters because it stands as “none of the above,” highlighting that
“young people enjoy the opportunity of voting by voting not for mainstream parties.”
Mr Hayward warned that the party launched only last month by Mr Corbyn and Zarah Sultana, and still unnamed, remains uncertain in its impact.
The Conservative peer said the influence of new teenage voters is “fairly consistent” across Britain. He expects most areas will see a “reasonably average impact.”
Lord Hayward highlighted key trends emerging from young voters, including “voting going all over the place” and increasing abstention.
He described 16 and 17-year-olds as “enormously fluid” and said their votes would be dispersed across parties, saying.
“All indications are that Labour will not be a big beneficiary of that age group of those who vote, because polling indications are that they are much more likely to split their votes all over the place.”
He also forecasted that voter turnout for 16 and 17-year-olds would be low, citing figures from the 2024 elections.
Mr Hayward added,
“Turnout was down across the board by just short of 10 per cent at the last election. But turnout was lowest among the youngest. Therefore, there is no reason for believing an even younger age group will not follow the trends of those immediately above them, by being actually a very low turnout demographic cohort.”
What did Martin Baxter say about youth voting trends?
Martin Baxter, director at pollster Electoral Calculus, stated,
“It could be that Labour’s plan for votes for 16 and 17 year olds – which did look a bit like semi-naked tilting the scales in Labour’s own favour – might backfire a little bit, if Reform and Corbyn attract those new voters.”
He said it is difficult to assess the new party’s voting potential, with the next general election still four years away.
Mr Baxter stated,
“The younger generations of the 18 to 24 cohort are quite pro-Labour. It’s also slightly surprisingly more pro-Reform than you might think.”
He added,
“At the moment, I’m not seeing hard data on the 16 and 17-year-old vote – or really, the people who will be 16 or 17 in 2029. It’s slightly weird because these people are currently 12 and 13, so their political views are perhaps not fully developed yet. But is there the potential, when they do grow up to be 16 and 17, for Jeremy Corbyn to get votes? Yes.”
What did Louis O’Geran say about the youth vote and Labour’s challenges?
Louis O’Geran, research and communications associate at pollsters More in Common UK, said,
“It would be a mistake to see the lower voting age as an easy win for Labour.”
He stated,
“In general, we know that young people are more likely than the public as a whole to vote for Labour or the Greens. But there is a notable gender divide: Gen Z men are more likely to back Labour and Reform, while the Green Party often leads among Gen Z women.”
Mr O’Geran predicted that 16 and 17-year-olds, making up only about 2 percent of the electorate, “won’t make a difference to the outcome in most constituencies.”
The pollster said,
“In an increasingly fragmented political landscape, their votes could help determine the outcome of a handful of tight races across the country.”
He argued,
“In urban seats where Labour faces strong independent challengers, 16 and 17-year-olds could help tip the balance. All of the youngest constituencies in the country are also places where Labour is under pressure from a ‘Gaza Independent’. In fact, there are seven constituencies where Labour’s majority over an independent candidate is smaller than the number of 16 and 17-year-olds in the seat,” adding, “With politics looking increasingly volatile, even numerically small changes in the electorate can have outsized local effects, and could subtly reshape the political map over time.”
UK Government’s views on lowering the voting age to 16
Britain will lower the voting age to 16 by the next general election, a major shift in the country’s electoral system. The government maintained it is fair to allow 16- and 17-year-olds to vote, since many are employed and serve in the military.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer called on 16 and 17-year-olds to participate in the next election by casting their votes.
Number 10 added, Prime Minister,
“Absolutely encourage them to be as engaged as they can be in the future of their country.”
What did Angela Rayner say about concerns over youth voting?
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner rejected party concerns, stating that misinformation poses a greater threat to voters.
She said,
“You can’t turn around and say: I don’t like what democracy is going to give so I’m not giving you democracy. That argument is, to me, a cul-de-sac.”
Ms Rayner stated,
“What we have to do is engage with people about the importance of democracy and the importance of them exercising their democracy, and our argument of why we’re the right people to do the job.”
She said,
“I’m more concerned about misinformation, fake news, the way people get information these days, and how that can skewer democracy more so than I am about giving a 16- and 17-year-old the opportunity to exercise their right to vote.”
Ms Rayner added,
“Where there’s foreign influence, people should be able to identify that, as opposed to some sort of ban on donations or picking on a particular individual. I think [you need to have] transparency about where that … money comes from, and then the electorate can see that, and can see whether there is a conflict of interest, or where a particular policy is coming from.”
What did Luke Tryl say about public opinion on lowering the voting age?
Luke Tryl, More in Common’s director, stated,
“Beyond the electoral impact, the bigger question is whether this change will be popular. The public opposes lowering the voting age by a 48% to 27% margin, and it is not near the top of many Britons’ priorities.”
Young voters in Britain
About 1.5 to 1.6 million 16- and 17-year-olds will soon be eligible to vote. Among young voters aged 18 to 24, Labour holds the most support at 33%, while Reform UK is gaining popularity, especially among young men.
However, interest in politics remains low, with only 45% of people aged 11 to 25 showing engagement. Nearly 82% of 16 to 24-year-olds use social media to get their news.