UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – The Treasury has launched an inquiry into a potential leak after the Office for Budget Responsibility reported a lower UK growth forecast.
An inquiry will be started into an alleged leak following claims that the Government’s economic watchdog had cut its economic growth projection.
Did the Office for Budget Responsibility’s confidential growth forecast just get leaked?
According to a report by Bloomberg, the OBR has reduced its economic growth projections in an assessment delivered to Chancellor Rachel Reeves last week,
OBR evaluations are intended to remain undisclosed until they are formally released by the department.
What did the Treasury say about the potential leak?
Treasury Permanent Secretary James Bowler informed the Commons Treasury Committee on Wednesday that his department would investigate the issue, considering it a possible breach.
He stated,
“It is important to put a ring around those forecasts and make sure they are not in the public domain.”
Mr Bowler added,
“The OBR, ministers and officials need to interact with each other. As new information becomes available, they need to do that privately, so that would be a very serious and very unwelcome undertaking.”
He refrained from giving remarks on the reported content of the OBR projection, stating disclosure would be strongly unwelcome as the forecasts are “highly sensitive to market movements.”
How did Downing Street respond to the OBR forecast reports?
No 10 has attempted to present a more positive outlook, with the Prime Minister‘s official spokesperson highlighting other institutions that have upgraded their growth projections for the UK economy.
Downing Street declined to comment ahead of the OBR forecast; however, it pointed out that both the OECD and IMF have revised their growth outlook upward for the next three years.
He stated,
“The Government remains relentlessly focused on growth as the only way of sustainably raising living standards and delivering the investment that we need in our public services.”
How did the Conservative shadow chancellor react to the OBR forecast downgrade?
Mel Stride, Tories Shadow Chancellor, criticized the government over reports of a reduced OBR forecast, urging it to “quit political games” and focus on concrete measures to tackle the major economic issues it has caused.
He added,
“With the Bank of England predicting growth falling and inflation rising, it is clear that this Chancellor needs to make urgent course corrections before the damage she is doing to the economy becomes permanent.”
Will Chancellor Rachel cut spending to meet her fiscal rules?
On March 26, Ms Rachel will update the nation on the economy’s projections, and if the OBR downgrades its growth forecast, she may have to implement spending reductions to stay within the debt and borrowing rules she introduced in October.
OBR projections will play a crucial role in maintaining the Chancellor’s policies, as they serve as benchmarks to assess whether she remains on track to meet her fiscal commitments.
Last December, the OECD revised its UK economic growth projection for 2025, increasing it from 1.2% to 1.7%, while in January, the IMF also adjusted its forecast, predicting a 1.6% expansion.