UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Internal Labour polling shows Reform UK could overtake Labour in the 2026 Welsh elections, with the new voting system giving Farage’s party a potential edge.
As reported by The Guardian, insiders revealed Labour’s internal polling indicating Nigel Farage’s party may challenge Labour in next year’s Welsh election, signaling a major shift.
What did the Labour survey reveal about voter shifts and Reform UK’s rise?
Internal Labour data shows Reform UK at 25%, with Labour and Plaid Cymru both at 21%.
According to Labour’s survey, Reform UK is set to reach 24%, tying with Plaid Cymru, while Labour remains narrowly ahead at 27%.
The polling indicated that Labour’s voter retention has weakened, with fewer than two-thirds of 2024 supporters expected to back the party next year, as Plaid Cymru benefits from the shift.
What did the Labour source say about securing support in Wales?
A Labour insider highlighted that backlash from Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan about the UK’s government benefit cuts raised internal discussions.
He stated,
“We will need to retain a mix of views because we need to secure our loyal Labour base. We may have to give up the fight with Reform in some Welsh areas as it’s just too sticky, but this must only be in Wales and not Westminster.”
Some sources point to Torfaen in south Wales, represented by Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds, as a key battleground for Labour against Reform UK.
What did government sources say about the 2026 Welsh election?
The government sources have denied internal polling suggesting a Reform UK win but warned of a three-way split in the 2026 Senedd elections, with Welsh Labour facing its toughest result in decades.
One insider stated,
“Labour in Wales have always been comfortable running against the Conservatives, so this will be a sea change in our politics.”
Reform UK to challenge Labour in 2026
According to a new Senedd seat projection by Cavendish Consulting, Reform UK may become the official opposition, with Labour securing 28 seats and Reform 27.
As the 2026 general election approaches, Labour is struggling with whether to court voters who have shifted to Reform or stick with its progressive base in Wales.
What did Carwyn Jones say about Labour’s approach to Reform UK?
Carwyn Jones, former Labour First Minister of Wales, urged Labour to adopt a straightforward approach on the doorstep to tackle the rising threat of Reform UK.
He asserted that Labour must ask why it is losing “a slice of our vote” to Farage’s party, stating,
“One of the things I was always aware of when I was first minister is that you’ve got to sound normal, avoid jargon, and talk like somebody who is an ordinary person.”
What did Kemi Badenoch say about the electoral pact with Reform UK?
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch rejected the idea of a nationwide alliance with Reform, adding,
“Nigel Farage has said he wants to destroy the Conservative party. When someone says they want to destroy you, you don’t invite them into your house and ask to do a deal.”
She stated,
“You don’t get to have a rerun of an election at the local level, so what I’m telling local leaders across the country [is] they have to do what is right for the people in their local area.”
Ms Badneoch added,
“So, local leaders are voted by the people in a particular community, they will have to make the choice about what is right for their councils.”
How did Nigel Farage respond to Kemi Badenoch’s remarks about the alliance with Reform UK?
In response, Nigel Farage said,
“Reform have no intention in forming coalitions with the Tories at any level” because “the Tories broke Britain nationally for 14 years, and their councils continue to break local communities with the highest taxes ever and worst services”.