United Kingdom (Parliament Politics magazine) – A new YouGov poll projects Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party winning 311 seats, nearly a majority and at the expense of Labour’s collapse to just 144 seats marking the worst Labour defeat since 1931. The poll shows Reform UK taking three-quarters of its seats directly from Labour, signalling a major realignment in British politics.
YouGov Poll Shows Surge for Reform UK and Collapse of Labour
As reported by YouGov on 25 September 2025, the latest MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) poll projects Reform UK winning 311 parliamentary seats if an election were held tomorrow. This is a dramatic gain from just five seats won in the 2024 general election and leaves Reform UK only 15 seats short of an outright majority.
The poll projects Labour’s representation dropping from 411 seats won last year to just 144 a catastrophic loss of 267 seats. The Conservatives remain stagnant near an all-time low with 45 seats, while the Liberal Democrats and minor parties maintain similar numbers.
Three-Quarters of Reform UK Gains Come from Labour
According to the YouGov projection analysed by The Telegraph and The Times, approximately 75% of Reform UK’s 311 seats come directly at the expense of Labour’s former holdings. Over half of Labour’s current seats would transfer to Reform UK in this scenario.
Labour’s heaviest losses would come in northern England, the East Midlands, and Wales traditional Labour heartlands that are shifting sharply to Reform UK. Reform UK’s weakest regions are London and Scotland, where Labour and the SNP maintain stronger positions.
Reform UK Nears Majority Despite Remaining Short
The YouGov MRP poll reports Reform UK would be the largest party in a hung Parliament in 91% of simulations, winning a blocking majority on confidence and supply in many cases. Their 311 seats would place them just shy of the 326 needed for an absolute majority.
Most analysts agree that given the Speaker’s position and Sinn Fein’s abstention from Westminster, Nigel Farage would be best positioned to form government.
Regional Breakdown and Party Vote Shares
Reform UK’s strongest showing would be the North East with 21 of 27 seats, followed by the East Midlands and Wales where they capture the majority of former Labour constituencies. The Liberal Democrats are projected to hold 78 seats, Conservatives 45, SNP 37, Greens 7, and Plaid Cymru 6.
Vote shares reflect Reform UK at 27%, Labour at 21%, and Conservatives trailing at 17%. Despite being on the decline, Conservatives would rank third in vote share but be far behind in seats (YouGov: 2025).
Political Context of Labour’s Decline
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer faces the deepest parliamentary defeat since 1931, a historic nadir that reflects multiple recent challenges, including scandals involving government ministers and failures to connect with core voters (Telegraph: 2025).
Some Labour figures like Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester, have hinted at possible leadership challenges amid mounting pressure.
Analysis of Reform UK’s Rise Under Nigel Farage
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has surged from a fringe presence to a dominant force by capitalising on dissatisfaction with Labour and Conservative parties alike. Their platform appealing on issues like immigration, law and order, and anti-establishment sentiment has struck a chord in former Labour strongholds.
Farage is projected to be the frontrunner to become Prime Minister if the election were held, a remarkable turnaround less than two years after entering Parliament.
Electoral Volatility and Narrow Margins
Despite Reform UK’s impressive numbers, YouGov’s analysis highlights potential volatility. Many seats are projected to be won by narrow margins; Reform UK holds 82 constituencies by less than five percentage points, suggesting future swings could shift outcomes.
Labour’s averages mirror similarly narrow margins, and Conservative-held seats remain precariously slim, underscoring the fragmented and highly competitive nature of Britain’s electoral environment.
The YouGov MRP poll reveals a political earthquake in Britain with Reform UK poised to impose the worst Labour defeat since 1931. Nigel Farage’s party appears ready to reshape the parliamentary landscape by capturing the lion’s share of Labour’s traditional base.
This moment signals a fundamental realignment in British politics, with the two-party dominance increasingly challenged. How Labour responds, and whether Labour or Conservative alliances bloc Farage’s path to Downing Street, will define the nation’s political trajectory in the coming years.