UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Pollster Lord Hayward says Reform UK’s momentum has stalled following by-election defeats and internal clashes within Nigel Farage’s party.
As reported by The Independent, a leading pollster says Reform UK’s momentum has faded and public backing may have peaked.
What did Lord Hayward say about Nigel Farage’s chances?
Lord Robert Hayward said Reform UK’s recent defeats in council by-elections they were defending may mark a turning point. He argued that the dip in support could hinder Mr Farage’s path to Downing Street.
He said,
“I would say their support has topped out rather than peaked [because] I’m not certain something else won’t give them a further boost, but the momentum has come to an end.”
Mr Hayward added,
“Poll numbers have been slightly declining. Membership numbers are down a bit. They are not winning by-elections. Those first two seats they defended were an important test.”
What did Reform’s recent defeats reveal about Farage’s future?
Business leaders and Labour insiders have urged Sir Keir Starmer to shift focus away from Reform UK. The calls came after Reform lost two council seats it was defending in last week’s by-elections.
Polling experts say election results provide a stronger measure of party performance than surveys alone. They argue that real-world voting offers more meaningful insight than fluctuating poll numbers.
In Newark West, Nottinghamshire, the Tories took a seat from the Reform in Robert Jenrick’s constituency. In County Durham’s Benfieldside, the Lib Dems also secured a win over Reform.
Mr Farage’s party had secured both seats in the county elections, but the winning candidates resigned almost immediately.
Reform has come under renewed pressure after MP James McMurdock gave up the party whip. His resignation follows the launch of an inquiry into his business deals during the COVID-19 crisis.
In just 12 months, only three of Reform UK’s original five MPs remain. Rupert Lowe was expelled after a dispute with Nigel Farage and former chairman Zia Yusuf earlier this year.
According to the Techne UK poll, Reform fell to 28%, a drop of three points. Meanwhile, YouGov’s latest findings showed a one-point decline.
The former Tory cabinet minister David Jones joined the party more than six months ago, but the delayed disclosure has raised concerns. Critics claim it’s a sign of political panic.
What did Reform UK say about claims that their momentum has stalled?
Reform has rejected claims that its progress has stalled, citing a More in Common poll forecasting a 290-seat gain in a general election.
A Reform UK spokesman stated,
“Recent polls have us as high as 34 per cent, we were told 20 per cent was our limit, then 25 per cent and now 30 per cent.”
They added,
“Reform has gained the most seats in the council by elections since the local elections. We have all the momentum in British politics.”
What did Eluned Morgan say about the Reform threat?
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan said,
“We think the threat from Reform is a very serious threat. I think it is important people recognise that things that we see every day in our lives in Wales may be snatched away from us, and the kind of stability that we’ve had for a long time.”
She admitted,
“We’ve got a lot of work to do to get voters back” ahead of the May 2026 Senedd (Welsh parliament) elections – something backed up by exclusive polling that reveals Reform is beating Welsh Labour, who have been in power in the Senedd since 1999.”
Ms Morgan added that she will not be
“chasing Reform down a path… because those aren’t my values.
She said,
“What we’ll be doing is offering a very clear alternative — one focused on bringing communities together. It’s important we remain authentic and clear about what we stand for.”