On July 4, registered voters across the UK’s 650 parliamentary constituencies will vote for their preferred candidates in a general election called by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The UK employs a first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system, meaning the candidate with the most votes in each constituency becomes a Member of Parliament (MP), even without a majority of votes. This system contrasts with proportional representation (PR), used in many European countries, where seats are allocated based on each party’s share of votes.
The Snap Election Call
The election, originally due by December 2024, was unexpectedly called by Sunak on May 22. Political analysts remain puzzled by the decision. Some speculate that Sunak’s Conservative Party feared that economic and migration issues wouldn’t improve later in the year. The Conservatives have faced significant challenges since their landslide victory in 2019, including the “partygate” scandal, the short-lived tenure of Liz Truss, and failures to deliver on key policies like curbing immigration.
Why Are the Conservatives Struggling?
The Conservative Party’s recent decline in popularity stems from issues of trust and competency. Scandals, such as partygate, have damaged public trust, while economic woes and failures in key areas like healthcare and migration have left voters disillusioned. The ongoing investigation into two Conservative candidates accused of insider betting on the election date further undermines the party’s standing.
Labour, led by Keir Starmer, has capitalized on the Conservative implosion, and polling suggests a potential “apathetic landslide” for the opposition party. However, Labour’s success may be more about Conservative missteps than overwhelming enthusiasm for Starmer’s policies.
Reform UK and Nigel Farage’s Impact
Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has surged in polls, challenging the Conservatives for second place. Farage’s populist, anti-immigration rhetoric has resonated with disillusioned Conservative voters, particularly in Brexit-leaning constituencies. While Reform UK may not win many seats, its rise highlights a fracture within the British right.
Election Outlook
Labour is widely expected to win a majority, while the Conservatives face potentially historic losses. The party’s internal struggle between embracing a more populist direction or rebuilding as a centre-right force will likely intensify post-election. For the Conservatives, securing even 100 seats would mark a major decline from their 365-seat victory in 2019, signaling the start of an ideological reckoning within the party.
