UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – A new YouGov poll suggests Reform UK would win the most seats if a general election were held today, with Labour collapsing and Tories pushed to fourth place.
As reported by Sky News, a YouGov poll shows Reform leading in seat count for the 2025 vote, with combined Labour-Tory support falling below 50%.
What did the YouGov poll reveal about Reform, Labour, and Tory seats?
In its first post-election MRP poll, YouGov linked thousands of voter profiles and behaviours to project likely seat outcomes.
YouGov’s 11,500-person poll suggests that if Britain voted tomorrow, Nigel Farage’s party would secure 271 seats, overtaking all rivals.
The poll shows Labour plunging to 178 seats, a sharp drop from the 411 it secured last year. Just 46 Tory MPs are forecast as the party drops to fourth position, falling behind the Liberal Democrats.
According to the poll, Liberal Democrats would secure 81 seats with a nine-seat gain, while the SNP emerges once again as Scotland’s leading party.
The poll reveals several cabinet ministers are projected to lose their seats. Those include:
- Angela Rayner
- Yvette Cooper
- Bridget Phillipson
- Jonathan Reynolds
- Lisa Nandy
- John Healey
- Pat McFadden
Polls show Reform UK surging under Nigel Farage, placing the party ahead of all rivals in:
- East Midlands
- East of England
- North East
- South East
- Wales
- West Midlands
- Yorkshire and the Humber
According to the poll, Reform UK holds the top spot with 26% support, while Labour is at 23%, the Tories at 18%, and the Liberal Democrats at 15%.
YouGov said,
“Reform’s meteoric rise to becoming comfortably the largest party in a hung parliament is driven by impressive performances right across the country – including in Scotland.”
Reform topped 99% of YouGov’s polling simulations, leaving Labour ahead in just a handful of cases. In nearly 97% of simulations, the pollster projected a hung parliament, with no single party securing a clear majority.
Around 9% of the survey’s projections show Reform and the Tories with enough numbers to govern jointly, while Labour and the Lib Dems reach that threshold in only a small minority of cases.
It stated,
“For instance, combining the Labour, Liberal Democrat, and SNP totals produces a majority in just 3% of simulations. Adding the Greens brings this figure to 11%, while adding Plaid pushes it up to 26%.”
What did the YouGov report reveal about UK voter shifts?
The report published by YouGov stated,
“That a clear majority would now vote for someone other than the two established main parties of British politics is a striking marker of just how far the fragmentation of the voting public has gone over the past decade.”
It added,
“According to our data and methods, 26% of voters would opt for Reform UK, 23% for Labour, 18% for the Conservatives, 15% the Liberal Democrats, 11% the Greens, 3% the SNP, 1% Plaid, and 2% for other parties and independent candidates.”
What did Luke Tryl say about public uncertainty in British politics?
Luke Tryl, the executive director of More in Common UK, stated,
“Only 13 per cent of Britons are confident Keir Starmer will remain in post after the next election, while a striking 41 per cent say they simply don’t know what the next elected government will look like.”
He said,
“In fact, the public rate Nigel Farage’s chances of becoming prime minister as highly as those of the current PM, with Reform voters particularly convinced their man will be walking into Downing Street. It’s yet another sign of the Reform leader’s ability to cast a political shadow far larger than his party’s presence in Westminster.”