The regional elections which took place on October 8 in Bavaria and Hesse saw the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a right-wing populist party, make spectacular progress. In Germany, 54% of the population is dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with democracy, an alarming percentage which highlights the disenchantment with politics that is sweeping the country.
This disappointment profoundly affects the German political landscape. The increasing fragmentation of political parties complicates the formation of coalitions. Even the grand coalition bringing together the two traditional parties, the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats, once dominant, no longer manages to gather a majority of seats.
The German political party system reflects these developments. At its center are parties in decline, the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats, to which are added a weakened liberal party, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which is struggling to cross the 5% mark, and the Greens. , party of the new middle class. In addition, the right-wing populists are gaining strength and a left-wing populist party, the groundwork for which was laid with “Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht” (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance) should soon be created.
While traditional centrist parties as well as the left’s old guard are on a downward trend, the right-wing populist AfD party has achieved significant success, particularly in affluent southern German regions such as Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, but also in Saxony in the east of the country. This often remains little noticed (and even less explained) in the usual debates which focus on the disparities between West and East Germany. The division between North and South is coupled with economic disparity, calling into question the frequently given explanation according to which populism emanates from the protest of those left behind and excluded from modernization. Unlike France, the United Kingdom or the United States, Germany does not show a clear divide between urban and rural areas in support for right-wing populist parties.
This is partly because AfD voters are motivated by beliefs that go beyond regional disparities. Germany has reaped the benefits of globalization since 2005, taking advantage of its highly internationalized economic model and in particular its close relations with China. However, this dynamic could evolve in light of changes in the global economic and geopolitical landscape, which raise fears of the effects of a Chinese shock that Germany could face. The former beneficiaries of globalization could now become losers. In this context, the anti-globalization discourse is gaining ground. AfD voters, who consider the European integration project to be one of the evils to be fought, are particularly sensitive to these developments.
This article is originally published on ifri.org