UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Keir Starmer holds nearly 30% influence over Scottish Labour voters, compared to Anas Sarwar’s 12%, raising questions about Labour’s leadership dynamics.
A recent poll indicated that the British PM has more political influence than the Scottish Labour leader.
What did the latest survey say about leadership influence in Scotland?
Ahead of today’s Scottish Labour conference in Glasgow, where Keir Starmer will deliver a speech on Sunday, a recent poll conducted by Opinion Matters on behalf of the communications firm Big Partnership gathered responses from 1,000 people between February 14 and 18.
The poll asked voters which of the Labour leaders would play a more significant role in shaping their vote in next year’s Holyrood election.
In response, 29.5% of respondents said the Prime Minister would have a greater influence on their decision, while 12.4% stated he would exert “significantly more influence” than the Scottish Labour leader.”
The survey reveals that 12.6% of voters believed Anas Sarwar would be more influential in their decision. Meanwhile, 27.3% felt that both leaders had an equal impact on their Holyrood vote.
What did Fraser Paterson say about Labour’s influence in Scotland?
Fraser Paterson, the head of public affairs at Big Partnership and an ex-adviser to a Labour MSP, stated,
“These results raise questions about the balance of influence between Labour north and south of the Border when it comes to campaigning ahead of the Holyrood elections, and whether Anas Sarwar can establish a distinct electoral identity separate from the Prime Minister, who inevitably is making most of the political weather.”
He said,
“Like the Conservatives, Labour has long grappled with tensions between Holyrood and Westminster, but that doesn’t have to be the case. The real test for Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar is whether they can forge a more unified approach.”
Mr Paterson added,
“For organisations looking to shape the public agenda, it’s essential to understand where the differences may lie and identify both the pitfalls and opportunities that come with them. Therefore, engaging effectively on both sides of the border has never been more important.”
What is behind Scottish Labour’s declining poll numbers?
Scottish Labour has seen its poll ratings decline since peaking last summer, a trend attributed to a series of unpopular decisions by the UK government.
Multiple inquiries about Keir Starmer’s decisions have been directed at the Scottish Labour leader, even as the Scottish Tories faced ongoing criticism from their UK counterparts during their time in power
What did the YouGov survey reveal about Keir Starmer?
On 19 February, 2025 a new YouGov poll showed Keir Starmer’s popularity as Prime Minister has dropped below former Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s ratings. The Labour leader now sits just above Liz Truss, while former leaders like David Cameron, Tony Blair, and Margaret Thatcher are still leading the rankings.
The YouGov survey shows that 45% of Britons believe Tony Blair did a better job as British Prime Minister than Keir Starmer.
When asked about their preferences, voters gave Gordon Brown a clear advantage over the Labour leader, with 42% backing the ex-PM’s tenure in Number 10, while only 12% supported Starmer.
Despite the Partygate scandal, Boris Johnson is edging ahead of Sir Keir Starmer in the survey by 3%. Another YouGov poll in January revealed voters describing Keir Starmer’s administration as “incompetent” and “dishonest,” adding to the party’s challenges.
Following its victory in July, Labour has faced numerous challenges, including the “freebies” scandal, the farmers’ protests, and backlash against Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Budget. However, in a positive turn for the Labour leader, Kemi Badenoch falls further behind Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
What will Keir Starmer say at the Scottish Labour Conference?
At the Scottish Labour conference in Glasgow on Sunday, Keir Starmer will urge MSPs, MPs, and activists to “show a path to the future,” warning that if Labour fails, “others will fill that void.”
He will say that, with their “dangerous right-wing politics”, Reform “will say they are the ones who can tilt politics towards the interests of working people”
While targeting Nigel Farage’s party, which secured five seats in the last general election, the Prime Minister will ask, “You want to know what Farage and Reform are doing during their rare visits to Parliament?” He will then reply, “They’re voting against our employment rights bill. They talk the language of workers’ rights online and on doorsteps, but they want to charge people to use the NHS. They are not the answer people are looking for. That is not the answer for Britain, and it will never be the answer for Scotland.”