UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Top pollster Sir John Curtice says Reform UK’s Runcorn by-election win marks a breakthrough for Farage, challenging Labour and Tory dominance.
As reported by The Independent, Britain’s leading pollster stated that Nigel Farage had made history by securing victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election.
What did Professor Sir John Curtice say about Reform UK’s victory in Runcorn?
Professor John Curtice described Reform UK’s win as a major success, proving the party poses a real threat to both Labour and the Conservatives.
According to Sir John, Mr Farage’s Ukip never won a by-election without an incumbent MP, with their two wins occurring after MPs defected from the Tories.
He said,
“So, to that extent, we have now broken new ground in terms of parliamentary by-elections.”
Sir John stated,
“We were looking to these elections to answer whether the message of the opinion polls is correct that Reform poses a significant threat to the traditional dominance of the Conservatives and Labour of our electoral politics. It already seems to be clear that the answer to that question is yes. Winning the by-election in itself was a very substantial success for Reform.”
The leading pollster emphasized that early council results showed a shift in support from the Conservatives to Reform, with traditional “true blue” areas now resembling Turquoise England, Farage’s party colour.
His remarks followed Keiran Pedley’s statement from Ipsos, calling Reform “the real deal” after the overnight election results.
What did Keiran Pedley say about Reform UK’s rise in the Runcorn by-election?
The pollster Keiran Pedley stated,
“Although Labour will be relieved to be holding on to three mayoralties, we have seen large swings away from Labour in each of the races.”
He added,
“Reform is clearly nipping at their heels. This is most clearly illustrated by Reform’s narrow victory in Runcorn, giving the party an additional voice in parliament. Put simply, the increase in support we have seen in opinion polls is real.”
What did Farage say about Reform UK’s breakthrough in Runcorn and the wider political impact?
Reform UK, led by Mr Farage, secured a narrow victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, with a six-vote margin over Labour. The by-election was triggered by Mike Amesbury’s drunken assault on a constituent.
Sarah Pochin’s win in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election marked Reform UK’s triumph in a seat that Labour had gained 14,700 votes less than a year ago.
Reform UK made gains against Labour and the Tories across England in local elections, with Nigel Farage calling it a “big moment” in British politics.
Mr Farage stated,
“For the movement, for the party, it’s a very, very big moment indeed, absolutely, no question, and it’s happening right across England.”
According to him, Sir Keir has distanced himself from Labour’s historic voters, stating the extent of this was “extraordinary.”
Reform gains ground in local elections
1 May’s vote extended beyond Runcorn, with over 1,600 councillors elected in 23 local bodies, as well as six mayoral positions across the country.
Reform UK’s Andrea Jenkyns, a former Tory minister, won the Greater Lincolnshire mayoral race.
Helen Godwin retained the West of England mayoralty for Labour, beating Reform’s Arron Banks by 5,945 votes. The Green Party’s Mary Page came third.
The North Tyneside mayoralty stayed with Labour, who won by a slim margin of 444 votes, ahead of Reform in second.
Reform is on track to take control of Staffordshire County Council, winning 24 of the 30 seats counted overnight, leaving the Conservatives with just six.
Labour’s stance on the byelection result
A Labour spokesperson said by-elections are
“always difficult for the party in government and the events which led to this one being called made it even harder.”
They added,
“While Labour has suffered an extremely narrow defeat, the shock is that the Conservative vote has collapsed. Moderate voters are appalled by the talk of a Tory-Reform pact.”