New York (Parliament Politics Magazine) January 15, 2026 – Wall Street major indexes rebounded with Nasdaq Composite gaining 3.2% led by TSMC ADR surging 8.1% after reporting record Q4 revenue NT$839.2 billion exceeding analyst expectations. S&P 500 rose 2.1% Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.8% broader semiconductor rally propelled Nvidia AMD Broadcom gains ranging 4.2-6.3%. VIX volatility index plunged 22% to 16.82 reflecting restored risk appetite following TSMC AI chip demand confirmation capacity expansion plans.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company posted 18.4% year-over-year revenue growth driven by Nvidia H100 Blackwell GPU orders CoWoS advanced packaging sold out through H1 2026. CEO C.C. Wei guided 2026 capex NT$1.2-1.4 trillion targeting 20% wafer capacity expansion high-NA EUV deployment Arizona Fab 21 volume production. Gross margin expanded to 57.2% beating consensus estimates triggering analyst upgrades Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley raising price targets US$195-210 range.
TSMC Q4 results exceed expectations AI accelerator demand surges
TSMC reported Q4 revenue NT$839.2 billion US$25.9 billion surpassing analyst consensus NT$820 billion representing 18.4% year-over-year growth and 3.5% sequential increase. Gross margin reached 57.2% 570 basis points expansion operating margin 48.5% net profit NT$295.8 billion US$9.1 billion earnings per share NT$11.93 exceeding estimates NT$11.62. AI accelerator revenue tripled year-over-year comprising 25% total Q4 sales diversified across Nvidia AMD Apple Broadcom Qualcomm platforms.
Management confirmed CoWoS advanced packaging capacity fully allocated H1 2026 pricing premiums 20-30% high-NA EUV lithography monthly production trials 2nm N2P risk production H2 2026 A16 1.6nm technology qualification. Q1 revenue guidance US$25-25.8 billion 17-22% sequential growth 2026 capex NT$1.2-1.4 trillion 25-30% full-year growth targeting 20% global wafer capacity expansion.
Mike Zaccardi highlighted chip strength. Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT said in X post,
“Chips strong on $TSM earnings and China planning AI chip cap rules $TSM +6% $NVDA +1.5% $EEM +0.9% (record high) Energy trading lower.”
Chips strong on $TSM earnings and China planning AI chip cap rules$TSM +6%$NVDA +1.5%$EEM +0.9% (record high)
Energy trading lower. @finviz_com pic.twitter.com/Y2b8BuPSGi
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) January 15, 2026
Nasdaq composite leads market recovery semiconductor dominance
Credit (Alan Schein Photography/Getty Images)
Nasdaq Composite closed 18,456.12 up 3.2% 571 points marking best single-day gain since November 2024 PHLX Semiconductor Index soared 5.8% reaching 2025 highs. TSMC ADR TSM US$187.45 gained 8.1% US$14.05 Nvidia NVDA US$142.83 rose 4.9% US$6.67 AMD US$168.92 climbed 5.7% US$9.04 Broadcom AVGO US$198.47 surged 6.2% US$11.32 Micron MU US$112.34 advanced 4.8% US$5.02.
S&P 500 settled 5,892.41 higher 2.1% 121 points Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 41,234.84 up 1.8% 742 points ten of eleven S&P sectors posted gains technology 4.1% communication services 3.2% consumer discretionary 2.8% leadership. VIX CBOE Volatility Index plunged 22% 4.78 points to 16.82 lowest level since December 2024 signaling risk-on sentiment restoration equity breadth improvement.
Analyst reactions confirm ai infrastructure spending acceleration
Goldman Sachs raised TSMC price target US$210 Buy rating maintained citing AI GPU HBM demand surge CoWoS capacity constraints pricing power high-NA EUV leadership. Morgan Stanley upgraded Outperform US$195 target highlighting 3nm 2nm process moat customer diversification AI cloud hyperscaler exposure expansion. JPMorgan Overweight US$200 target Taiwan geopolitical risk normalization Arizona Japan Europe geographic diversification execution.
Consensus ratings 35 Buy 8 Hold 2 Sell average price target US$192.47 representing 2.6% upside 2026 EPS estimates NT$48.20 25% growth projection AI revenue 38% total sales contribution high-NA EUV competitive positioning reinforcement.
Menthor Q noted market breadth improvement. Menthor Q said in X post,
“Tech led a bounce in US stocks S&P 500 +0.5%, Nasdaq 100 +0.9% as strong TSMC results reignited AI optimism and lifted chips. Beneath the surface, participation looks healthier, with rotation inside tech rather than broad weakness.”
Tech led a bounce in US stocks
S&P 500 +0.5%, Nasdaq 100 +0.9% as strong TSMC results reignited AI optimism and lifted chips.
Beneath the surface, participation looks healthier, with rotation inside tech rather than broad weakness. pic.twitter.com/1AimSAu1iK
— Menthor Q (@MenthorQpro) January 15, 2026
TSMC capacity expansion plan targets 20% wafer growth 2026
CEO C.C. Wei outlined NT$1.2-1.4 trillion 2026 capex 25-30% year-over-year increase Taiwan 75% allocation NT$900-1.05 trillion Arizona Fab 15 4nm Fab 21 3nm US$16 billion cumulative Japan Kumamoto Fab 1 22/28nm Fab 2 12/16nm US$13 billion Germany Dresden specialty US$11 billion overseas total US$40 billion. Global foundry capacity 20% CAGR 2023-2028 AI data center edge automotive IoT demand TSMC 62% advanced node market share 3nm 65% 2nm 90% leadership.
High-NA EUV deployment monthly production 9nm trials 2nm N2P H2 2026 risk production A16 1.6nm qualification SoIC InFO packaging customer adoption pricing premiums 20-30% utilisation rates 92% Q4 capacity constraints profitability expansion.
Nvidia amd broadcom micron ride Ai demand tailwinds
Nvidia shares gained 4.9% Goldman Sachs US$165 target Blackwell GPU ramp TSMC CoWoS allocation H100 B200 DGX systems data center dominance acceleration. AMD rose 5.7% MI300X Instinct accelerators TSMC 5nm 4nm capacity Microsoft Azure AI inference training workloads expansion.
Broadcom climbed 6.2% custom AI XPUs Google TPU VMware synergies TSMC 3nm packaging networking connectivity AI infrastructure tailwinds. Micron advanced 4.8% HBM3E memory TSMC CoWoS Nvidia H200 GPU pricing power data center memory content 40% AI systems expansion.
Federal reserve policy supports risk asset performance
Fed December dot plot projects two 25bp 2026 rate cuts funds rate terminal 3.75-4.00% Goldman JPMorgan forecast three cuts 3.50-3.75% risk-on equity risk premium compression. 10-year Treasury yield 4.12% 10bp weekly decline 2s10s curve 28bp steepening cyclical recovery pricing March FOMC cut probability 65%.
December CPI 2.8% year-over-year core PCE 2.9% disinflation trajectory 2% target convergence wage growth 3.8% unemployment 4.1% soft landing market pricing duration extension growth optimism.
Wall street strategists maintain technology overweight positioning
Morgan Stanley Mike Wilson overweight technology communication services underweight utilities staples growth leadership restoration. Goldman Sachs David Kostin S&P 500 6100 6.5% 2026 target 12% earnings growth AI capex acceleration. JPMorgan Private Bank tactical overweight US equities duration extension risk premium compression continuation.
BlackRock US equity neutral overweight cyclicals growth secular AI infrastructure multi-year duration extension execution potential.
ASML applied materials lam research equipment tailwinds
ASML Holding rose 3.8% high-NA EUV systems TSMC Samsung SK Hynix EUV monopoly pricing power expansion. Applied Materials gained 4.2% deposition etch advanced packaging AI fab capacity equipment leadership. Lam Research climbed 4.5% chamber etch deposition leading-edge node capacity expansion.
KLA Corporation advanced 3.9% process control metrology yield management advanced node optimization AI manufacturing complexity equipment intensity acceleration.
Institutional flows favor technology growth duration extension
Vanguard 28% technology overweight BlackRock iShares 32% tech allocation State Street SPDR 29% overweight risk-on sentiment restoration. Pension funds endowments sovereign wealth US$3.2 trillion AI infrastructure private equity venture allocation duration extension growth premium expansion.
Hedge funds gross leverage 2.8x net long technology 42% concentration VIX 16.82 duration extension multi-quarter horizon positioning.
Macroeconomic environment supports equity rally continuation
US Q4 GDP 2.8% annualised ISM Manufacturing 52.3 new orders expansion capacity utilisation 79.8% capex cycle pricing power restoration. Conference Board consumer confidence 112.5 retail sales 0.4% December household balance sheet deleveraging completion.
China Caixin PMI 51.2 Europe Markit Composite 52.1 expansion synchronisation AI capex global supply chain coordination duration extension growth cycle execution.
Q4 earnings season projects 12% s&p 500 growth acceleration
S&P 500 Q4 earnings growth 12% revenue 6.5% margin expansion AI capex software hardware semiconductor leadership. FactSet 82% EPS beats 71% revenue beats market breadth improvement growth continuation.
Technology earnings growth 22% communication services 18% consumer discretionary 14% industrials 11% financials 9% diversified leadership duration extension multi-quarter horizon execution.
Technical indicators confirm bullish intermediate trend structure
Technical indicators across major US indices confirm a bullish intermediate trend structure as of mid-January 2026. The Nasdaq Composite maintains robust support at its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near 17,892, where recent pullbacks found buyers executing a precise Fibonacci 38.2% retracement bounce from October 2025 lows.
The S&P 500 similarly validates strength above its 200-day SMA of 5,712, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) decisively breaking resistance at 585 on elevated volume. This breakout aligns with contracting volatility, as the VIX settles at 16.82 below its 20-day SMA indicating reduced fear and trader complacency conducive to rallies. Market breadth supports the advance.
Semiconductor leadership further bolsters the intermediate outlook via the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), which holds its 200-day SMA at 4,892 while executing a textbook golden cross: the 50-day SMA firmly above the 200-day, signaling momentum acceleration. SOX’s relative strength line slopes upward sharply, confirming sector rotation into AI, chip design, and supply chain plays as economic bellwethers.