UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Over 80 Labour MPs face electoral risk from welfare cuts as proposed changes to benefits target disabled constituents, with many MPs warning of backlash.
As reported by The Guardian, data shows at least 80 Labour MPs risk losing seats due to welfare cuts, with party members warning the government that proposed benefit reforms could jeopardise their re-election chances.
The analysis shows that nearly 200 Labour MPs have a majority smaller than the number of constituents receiving personal independent payments, especially in northern “red wall” areas.
How will Labour MPs respond to the welfare cuts campaign ahead of the June vote?
Labour MPs are increasing their efforts to oppose welfare changes, with a vote scheduled for June following actions taken during the Easter recess.
Opposition MPs expect to secure 50 MPs against welfare changes, with some MPs possibly being allowed to abstain quietly on the vote.
Loyalist MPs are urging a letter-writing campaign to Keir Starmer, pressing for action on cuts and poverty, dismissing lobbying the Chancellor as pointless.
A Labour MP from the Left highlighted “missteps and silly decisions,” warning that welfare cuts could push MPs to take a firm stand against them.
Which MPs and ministers are vulnerable to welfare reform changes?
Senior ministers and Cabinet members are facing the risk of losing their seats due to having smaller majorities than the number of affected constituents.
Ministers likely to face setbacks due to welfare changes:
- Justice Secretary: Shabana Mahmood
- Health Secretary: Wes Streeting
- Safeguarding Minister: Jess Phillips
- Education Minister: Nia Griffith
- Homelessness Minister: Rushanara Ali
High-profile MPs vulnerable to welfare reform:
- Barnsley South MP: Stephanie Peacock
- Rotherham MP: Sarah Champion
- Kingston upon Hull East MP: Karl Turner
- Grimsby MP: Melanie Onn
Which MPs and constituencies could be affected by welfare cuts despite healthy majorities?
According to the data, MPs with substantial majorities could face challenges. In Easington, Grahame Morris holds a lead of over 6,000 votes against Reform, while over 12,600 residents claim PIP. Similarly, in Huddersfield, Harpreet Uppal maintains a majority of more than 4,500 over the Greens, with 9,387 claiming PIP in the area.
The analysis highlights the significant number of voters in Labour constituencies, regardless of their substantial majorities. In areas like:
- Easington
- Blaenau Gwent
- Aberfan
One in five working-age residents in these constituencies receive PIP payments.
In several key constituencies, the number of PIP recipients is significant, even in regions with prominent MPs, including:
- Swansea West, where Pensions Minister Torsten Bell represents one in six claimants.
- Wolverhampton, represented by Pat McFadden, where about one in seven people claim PIP.
- Houghton and Sunderland South, the seat of Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, also shows a similar trend, with one in seven residents receiving PIP.
Who compiled the data on disability cuts?
Julia Modern, co-chair of the Disability Poverty Campaign Group, compiled the findings. She stated,
“Some of us will lose up to £10,000 a year, which is nearly 60% of the income that a disabled person who cannot work because of disability receives through universal credit and PIP.”
Ms Modern said,
“At least 350,000 people will be pushed into poverty as a result, joining the 4.8 million disabled people who already live in poverty in the UK.”
She added,
“The results suggest Labour is making a colossal political mistake. We urge Labour backbenchers to do the right thing: to speak up and say they will not vote for such cruel and badly thought-through cuts.”
How did the Department for Work and Pensions respond to criticism of disability benefit reforms?
A Department for Work and Pensions spokesperson stated,
“We have been clear that protecting people in need is a principle we will never compromise on … Our reforms will unlock work for sick and disabled people who can and want to be in employment … ensuring they are supported to live with dignity and independence, whilst making sure that everyone who can realise the benefits of work is expected and supported to do so.”
What did Andy McDonald say about the impact of welfare reforms on Labour constituencies?
Labour MPs, including former shadow employment minister Andy McDonald, have received the data. He commented,
“The government’s welfare reforms disproportionately hit constituents who can least afford it, and that is particularly so in the constituencies of many Labour MPs. It poses a real electoral risk.”
Mr McDonald added,
“We know people on low incomes spend the money they take home in their local communities, so this policy is sucking money out of our local towns. The government should prioritise its anti-poverty strategy before rushing decisions to reform welfare, which harm those in need.”
What did Neil Duncan-Jordan say about disability benefit cuts and Labour voters?
Neil Duncan-Jordan, Labour MP for Poole, said the welfare changes were likely to backfire politically. He stated,
“It is quite clear from the recent polling by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation that the majority of people who voted Labour in 2024 believe the proposed changes to disability benefits are wrong.”
Mr Jordan added,
“It’s not only morally wrong to target the poor, it’s also electorally foolish. The government needs to withdraw the green paper and go back to the drawing board.”
What did Richard Burgon say about disability cuts and the risk to Labour’s future?
Labour MP Richard Burgon raised concerns over the figures. He said,
“There is no moral case for these cuts to disability benefits. But for Labour MPs not yet persuaded that it’s morally wrong to balance the books on the backs of the disabled, this data will be an electoral wake-up call.”
Mr Burgon added,
“This cruel policy doesn’t just betray our values, but risks contributing to this being a one-term Labour government. The idea that voters hit by these cuts have ‘nowhere else to go’ is outdated nonsense. They do and so do their friends and family. Other parties are waiting in the wings and in many Labour-held seats with large numbers of disabled people, this policy will help pave the way for Reform.”
What did other Labour MPs say about welfare cuts and rebellion?
A Labour MP from the Left highlighted “missteps and silly decisions,” warning that welfare cuts could push MPs to take a firm stand against them.
The MP stated,
“I’ve spoken to not the usual suspects… the first thing they’ve said to me after a few minutes saying how things are going is: ‘I’m going to slap the Government, I’ve had enough, I don’t know what it will be, but I’m at the end of my tether. I need to show my constituents, I need to show people that I have my brain, that I’m not going to suck up all of this.”
A second Labour MP warned that MPs were “not happy” regarding welfare changes, stating,
“You can do what you like to insulate MPs during the week when they’re all in the House of Commons, but you can’t insulate them from what people are saying to them on the doorstep.”
Another MP expressed surprise if their fellow MPs did not raise their concerns in a letter to the Treasury, highlighting that MPs beyond the Labour Left were “deeply concerned and uncomfortable.” The MP said,
“They don’t believe it’s necessary and it’s not what they got involved in Labour politics to do.”
According to Rachael Maskell, the MP for York Central, there is “a lot of concern” about Sir Keir’s welfare reform changes, with the MP arguing that “taking a sledgehammer” to benefits is “not the right approach.”
She added,
“What I am most concerned about is the narrative. I’m getting letters from constituents who are very, very worried about losing their benefits,” she said. “It feels like the Government is getting the bad news out of the way before the spending review. I want the Treasury to listen at this point, and give us the guarantee that our constituents who need state support will be helped and not frightened.”