Food Prices Experience First Monthly Decline in Two Years, Fuel Costs Surge, Maintaining UK Inflation at 6.7%

Amid the backdrop of the UK’s inflation rate holding steady at 6.7%, halting a three-month streak of declines, food prices, including milk, cheese, and eggs, saw a welcome drop, offering relief to consumers. However, petrol prices increased by 5.1p per litre.

The most recent inflation data highlights that the battle against soaring prices is far from over, creating uncertainty about potential future interest rate hikes. Analysts, who had anticipated a slight decrease in the overall inflation rate, might find the unchanged figure somewhat disappointing, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Rishi Sunak Commits To Reducing Inflation

Nevertheless, Grant Fitzner, the chief economist, shared , “When you observe European nations, many have experienced recent periods of stability or, in some instances, an actual increase in the headline inflation rate before embarking on a downward trajectory.”

Rishi Sunak reiterated his commitment to reducing inflation to approximately 5.3% by year-end as his top priority.

UK interest rates were held at 5.25% last month after a series of rate hikes aimed at reining in inflation. While the consensus among most economists is for rates to remain unchanged next month, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has acknowledged that future decisions may be challenging.

The resurgence of oil prices due to the crisis in Israel and Gaza serves as a poignant reminder of the volatility and complexity inherent in managing inflation.

Earlier this week, distinct data revealed that between June and August, wages surpassed inflation, marking the first time in nearly two years.

Burden on Households and Businesses Amid Inflation

Nonetheless, a significant number of households continue to grapple with the challenges posed by the soaring cost of living, and charitable organizations have cautioned that the situation might deteriorate during the upcoming winter season.

The inflation figure for September holds particular importance for individuals who rely on benefits. By law, certain benefits, such as disability benefits, must increase in accordance with this figure starting in April. Other benefits, notably universal credit, also typically adjust in line with this rate, although the decision lies within the discretion of government ministers.

Hannah Nagy, a mother of two residing in Stainland, West Yorkshire, shared that her income has seen an approximately 5% increase since April. However, she lamented that this boost “hardly makes a dent,” especially considering the rising costs of everyday essentials.

How Elevated Interest Rates Are Affecting the Wider Economy

In recent years, elevated food prices have been a key driver of inflation, with the weekly grocery bill increasing substantially due to supply chain disruptions and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Even though food price inflation maintains a high annual rate of 12.2%, it has been showing signs of moderation.

In the period between August and September, food prices experienced a minor decrease of 0.1%, primarily driven by reductions in dairy products and soft drinks. The sole exception to this trend was the fish category, with a notable increase attributed to frozen prawns.

On the other hand, motorists faced another blow at the fuel pumps as global oil prices surged. During the same August to September timeframe, petrol prices rose to an average of 153.6p per litre, while diesel climbed by 6.3p to reach 157.4p per litre.

 These figures marked a noticeable uptick from the levels observed in June, although they still remained considerably lower than the peaks seen in the previous year.

Oil prices experienced a notable surge following production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, aimed at stabilizing the global market. Additionally, developments in Israel and Palestine contributed to further increases in oil prices.

Read More: British Teen in Legal Battle with NHS While Being Critically Ill In the UK

Beyond Interest Rates: Food, Fuel, and Other Influences on Inflation

Elevated interest rates have exerted significant stress on both households and businesses, resulting in increased expenses for mortgages and loans. These effects have subsequently impacted the broader economy, which has been experiencing a deceleration.

Economists anticipate that the recently implemented energy price cap on October 1st will lead to a reduction of at least one percentage point in inflation next month. The cap imposes constraints on the charges that energy suppliers can levy on households for each unit of gas and electricity.

Nonetheless, the UK’s inflation rate remains subject to a multitude of variables, encompassing factors such as food and fuel prices, making it a challenging figure to predict accurately.

Beth Malcolm

Beth Malcolm is Scottish based Journalist at Heriot-Watt University studying French and British Sign Language. She is originally from the north west of England but is living in Edinburgh to complete her studies.