UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – The Home Office links rising Channel crossings to calm weather and crowded boats, though experts say smuggling and demand drive long-term increases.
As reported by the Guardian, Home Office analysis says calmer weather and more crowded boats drive the record rise in people crossing the Channel to the UK.
What did the report reveal about calmer weather and Channel crossings?
In the first four months of this year, the Channel experienced twice as many calm “red days” compared to 2024. These weather patterns encourage more people to attempt crossings.
By April 2025, nearly half of the boats crossing the Channel carried 60 or more people, up from just 2% in 2022. The data revealed 60 red days from January to April 2025, up from 27 in 2024 and 24 in 2023 during the same timeframe.
Red days surged by 93.5% in the first 10 months of Keir Starmer’s government compared to last year. Meanwhile, arrivals grew by 34.5%, rising from 25,571 to 34,401.
Figures reveal more people travelling by dinghy. In April 2023, one boat carried over 80 passengers, while in April 2025, 33 such boats were recorded.
Who prepares Channel crossing risk assessments for the Home Office?
The Met Office provides crossing risk assessments for the Home Office. The assessments use a colour-coded system, red, amber, or green – to indicate the likelihood of Channel crossings.
They are based on various factors, including:
- Wave height
- Surf conditions on beaches
- Wind speed and direction
- Chance of rain
- Recent trends in environmental conditions
What did the Migration Observatory say about the weather’s role in boat arrivals?
Oxford’s Migration Observatory challenged the Home Office analysis, finding no proof that weather drives long-term increases in Channel crossings.
Peter Walsh, a senior researcher at the Migration Observatory, stated, “There’s no evidence to suggest that the weather is a major factor explaining long-term increases in small boat arrivals such as the one we’ve seen over the past eight months.”
He added, “It seems unlikely that the weather is much more than a short-term constraint on small boat crossings. Other factors, such as the number of people wanting to reach the UK and the number and professionalisation of smuggling gangs, are likely to be more important.”
What did Enver Solomon say about refugees and channel crossings?
Enver Solomon, the chief executive of the Refugee Council, stated, “Itly correct to acknowledge that there are more crossings when there are good weather days, but it is also important to recognise that enforcement measures alone are so far not achieving the intended outcome.”
He added, “Many men, women and children taking these journeys are fleeing countries like Sudan, where war is forcing them from their homes. People do not risk their lives on a flimsy boat in the Channel unless they are running from horrors more frightening than they face in the sea.”
What did the Home Office say about the rise in channel crossings?
A Home Office spokesperson stated, “This government is restoring grip to the broken asylum system it inherited that saw a whole criminal smuggling enterprise allowed to develop, where gangs have been able to exploit periods of good weather to increase the rate of crossings for too long.”
key statistics on migrants in the UK
Arrivals & visas
- Total arrivals: 133.4 million, with 56% being British nationals
- Visitor visas: 2.2 million granted (7% increase from 2024)
- Electronic Travel Authorisations (ETAs): 5.4 million issued since October 2023, mostly to Americans (1.7M) and Germans (371K)
- Non-visit visas: 875K issued (work, study, family, humanitarian)
Work migration
- Work visas: 192K granted to main applicants (39% drop from 2024)
- Health/care visas: 23K (85% decline from 2023 peak)
- Skilled worker visas: 434K extensions granted (7x higher than 2019)
Study migration
- Student visas: 403K granted (10% drop from 2024)
- Dependants: 18K (83% fewer than in 2024) due to policy changes
- Top nationalities: Chinese (25%), Indian (23%)
Family & humanitarian routes
- Family visas: 76K granted (3% decrease)
- Refugee resettlement: 7.7K (90% via Afghan program)
- Ukraine Scheme: 17K visas issued
Irregular migration
- Small boat arrivals: 38K (22% increase from 2024), 86% of all irregular arrivals
- Top nationalities: Afghans (16%), Syrians (12%), Eritreans (12%)
- Total irregular arrivals: 44K (14% rise)
- Asylum claims: 109K lodged (17% increase), with a 49% grant rate