UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Sir John Curtice, a polling expert, predicts that Reform UK’s rising numbers pose a growing threat to the established political order as Labour support drops.
Professor Sir John told The Independent that Nigel Farage‘s party’s rise in the polls is genuine and may continue until the next general election.
What did Sir John Curtice say about the leading political parties?
Mr Curtice pointed out that while the Conservative Party faces ongoing difficulties, the significant trend has been Labour’s sharp drop in popularity within seven months of holding office.
Prof Curtice stated,
“There is no reason to believe Reform’s vote is being significantly overstated.”
He highlighted that the rise of third parties, like the SDP in 1981 and the Lib Dems in 2010, shows their potential to expand and challenge the dominance of the two major political parties.
Professor Curtice explained that the SDP’s failure in the 1983 election was due to internal divisions and the Falklands War, alongside Labour’s collapse.
Mr Curtice also warned that the combined success of the Brexit Party and Lib Dems in the 2019 European elections led the Conservatives to replace Theresa May and bring in Boris Johnson.
He stated,
“The general election is a long way off but the challenge is real and much will depend on Reform funding and ability to create a party machine, plus what happens to the economy and the NHS.”
Could Reform UK surpass Labour and the Tories in upcoming elections?
Professor Curtice’s remarks come after a series of recent polls, which reveal that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has risen to either first place or tied for the top position.
According to Techne UK’s tracker for The Independent, Labour and Reform UK both stood at 25%, while the Tories lagged with 23%, a pattern consistent with the week’s poll of polls average.
FindOutNow’s poll on the same day placed Reform UK at 29%, 11 points ahead of the Conservatives at 18%, and four points ahead of Labour at 25%.
According to Professor Curtice, FindOutNow’s figures may be slightly inflated, but the overall trend shows a rise in support as the 2024 election approaches.
He added,
“There is no particular evidence that this is what happens early in a parliament. Indeed, the fall in Labour’s vote of this size so quickly is, I think, a record.”
How did Lord Hayward, ex-Tory MP and pollster, respond to the latest poll results?
Lord Hayward, a former Tory MP and expert pollster, warned about the reliability of the figures.
He added,
“The last general election had the most inaccurate polls in history. The only reason there was not a fuss about it was because it was so obvious Labour was going to win that it did not make a difference to the result unlike 2015.”
Mr Hayward said that the by-election results indicate Reform’s progress, with several results offering a solid foundation for further analysis.
He also suggested that Reform has been capturing the attention of those voters who usually refrain from voting.
What did Mr Tryl of More In Common say about the Refrom’s rise?
Mr Tryl of More in Common stated Reform’s rise is undeniable, with former critics of Farage now questioning the status quo, highlighting Labour’s failures and the Tories’ long tenure of 14 years.
He added, “But that places a few tests on Reform – what’s the wider policy programme? Can they find the candidates? And, crucially, is 25% a new ceiling?”
The shift in political support, seen in elections from 2015 to 2024, reveals traditional Labour voters are now turning to Reform after supporting the Tories.
What do the recent poll findings reveal about Labour, Reform and Tory?
For the first time, Reform UK has topped a Sky News/YouGov poll, with Nigel Farage’s party securing 25%, closely followed by Labour at 24% and the Tories at 21%.
The findings of the survey also revealed that Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s popularity has dropped, with her rating falling from -25 last month to -29 this month, putting her behind Nigel Farage.