UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Polling expert Sir John Curtice warns Labour faces bigger threats from Lib Dems and Greens than Reform, raising doubts about PM Keir Starmer’s leadership.
As reported by The Standard, Sir John Curtice said Labour focusing on Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is a “mistake,” as the party is losing support to the Lib Dems and Greens.
He warned at a fringe conference that, while Mr Farage’s party is Labour’s major threat, Reform UK is “far from the only challenge” facing the party.
What did John Curtice warn Labour about Reform UK and other threats?
Sir John Curtice suggests Labour should avoid repeating the Tories’ immigration strategy, saying economic and NHS improvements are more likely to restore voter trust.
He said, “It is a mistake to believe that this party’s only problem is Reform. It isn’t. Actually, you are losing more support to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens collectively, much more support, than you are to Reform.”
The polling expert warned that in some areas where Labour faces Reform UK, defections to the Lib Dems and Greens could harm MPs, and anti-Farage tactical votes aren’t guaranteed for Mr Starmer.
According to him, ex-Tory voters are “feeding the Reform juggernaut,” making them more likely to return to the Conservatives than vote Labour.
He described Labour’s first year as “the worst ever fall in support for a newly elected government,” highlighting its low vote share and the challenge of facing a “deeply unhappy” electorate.
When questioned about Labour’s chances of a turnaround, he responded, “The honest answer to that is no.”
Mr Curtice suggested Labour could regain ground if by 2029 the economy improves and waiting lists are significantly reduced.
He also raised questions over whether Sir Keir Starmer could capitalize, saying the PM’s image as “the friendly local plumber” contrasts with voters’ desire for an “architect of Valhalla.”
The polling expert said,
“You need to do more than change the reality, you also have to influence perception. And clearly, the question that is being raised about the current Labour leadership is, does it have the ability to change the mind?”
He noted that voters remain unclear on what Mr Starmer represents, stating,
“The mystery of Keir Starmer, who is he, what does he stand for, that mystery, we are maybe two-thirds of the way through the novel, but we are still not sure where the body lies.”
Amid rumours of a leadership bid from Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, Mr Curtice highlighted data showing the mayor leads in popularity among 2024 Labour voters.
What did a new poll reveal about Labour members’ support for Sir Keir Starmer?
The Survation poll for LabourList revealed that 53% of Labour members want a fresh leader by the next election, with only 31% supporting Sir Keir to remain in post.
The LabourList survey of 1,254 members between 23 and 25 September showed 65% believe Sir Keir is leading the party in the wrong direction. Only 26% said he is on the right track.
YouGov’s poll about Reform UK and a possible hung parliament
The YouGov MRP poll, based on a sample of 13,000, suggests a hung parliament if an election were held tomorrow, with Reform UK winning 311 of 650 seats.
According to the projection, Labour would win 144 seats, the Liberal Democrats 78, Conservatives 45, with SNP, Greens, Plaid, and three seats by left-wing candidates.
What did Luke Tryl say about Nigel Farage’s chances of becoming PM?
Luke Tryl, the executive director of More in Common UK stated,
“Only 13 per cent of Britons are confident Keir Starmer will remain in post after the next election, while a striking 41 per cent say they simply don’t know what the next elected government will look like.”
He said,
“In fact, the public rate Nigel Farage’s chances of becoming prime minister as highly as those of the current PM, with Reform voters particularly convinced their man will be walking into Downing Street.”
Mr Tryl added,
“It’s yet another sign of the Reform leader’s ability to cast a political shadow far larger than his party’s presence in Westminster.”