UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Reform UK’s growing support in Scotland may benefit the SNP by further dividing the pro-Union vote, according to top pollster John Curtice.
As reported by the Daily Record, a leading pollster believes the rise in support for Nigel Farage’s party is “good news” for John Swinney, as it continues to split the pro-Union vote.
What did John Curtice say about Nigel Farage’s influence on Reform UK’s success in Scotland?
According to John Curtice, the SNP doesn’t need to worry about the rise of the right-wing populist party, pro-independence backers are not likely to support it.
He stated that Reform’s influence could be crucial in determining the outcome of the by-election.
The polling expert mentioned that Nigel Farage is expected to campaign in Hamilton in the coming weeks, as he is “the one person everyone recognizes” within the party.
His remarks come after the Reform leader suggested he favors the SNP continuing its rule in Holyrood, while rejecting any chance of supporting Anas Sarwar for First Minister.
Mr Curtice said,
“Reform are where they are because of Nigel Farage. He absolutely has to turn up and contest everything Reform are hoping to fight, as he’s the one person everybody’s heard of. He’s marmite. But for the constituency they’re to appeal, he’s box office.”
He stated,
“The SNP don’t really have to worry about Reform. If you look at the polls, virtually no one who voted for the SNP last summer is going to Reform. Reform are splitting the Unionist vote. The rise of Reform is good news for John Swinney, not that he will admit it.”
The leading pollster said,
“But the best thing for the SNP would be to regain the independence supporters who were voting for Labour last time. That’s the challenge John Swinney between now and next May,”
adding,
“The SNP vote is up a wee bit from last summer. But the reason the SNP’s electoral prospects have been transformed in the last 12 months is the decline of Labour. Reform have played a role in that decline.”
What did Nigel Farage say about Scotland’s political future?
Referring to Scottish politics, Nigel Farage said,
“We’re not doing a deal with Labour. No, we’re just not going to do it.”
He added,
“I’m not that worried about the SNP. Yes, they’re going to have a resurgence. Scotland is not going to leave the United Kingdom. It’s not going to happen in a month of Sundays.”
John Swinney view’s on Farage’s comments on the SNP
The First Minister of Scotland, John Swinney, said there would be no deals between the SNP and Farage’s Reform Party.
He said,
“Just so everyone knows, there will never be any deals, under any circumstances, between the SNP and Nigel Farage,” adding, “The SNP stand against his divisive politics.”
Scottish Labour and Conservatives stance on Farage’s comments
Jackie Baillie, Scottish Labour’s deputy leader, stated,
“This comment from Nigel Farage tells you everything you need to know – a vote for Reform is a vote for the SNP. Reform isn’t going to stand up to the SNP, they are going to help them back into power.”
Rachael Hamilton, deputy leader of the Scottish Conservatives, said,
“Nigel Farage’s party handed several seats to the SNP in last year’s general election and now it seems they’re happy to hand John Swinney another five years in power.”
What did the More in Common survey reveal about Reform UK’s rise?
A new survey shows that voters believe Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has an equal chance of becoming Britain’s next prime minister as Sir Keir Starmer.
His party has consistently polled over 20% of the national vote this year, putting the Tories in third position.
The recent survey reveals that 13% of voters expect the Reform leader to become prime minister, the same proportion that believes Sir Keir will stay in power.
Just 5% of voters think Ms. Badenoch can reverse the Tories’ fortunes, while 10% support a different Conservative leader for the premiership.
A significant portion, 4 in 10 people, believed they were uncertain about the next leader of the country.
What did Luke Tryl say about public uncertainty in British politics?
Luke Tryl, the executive director of More in Common UK stated,
“This research underscores just how uncertain the public feels about the direction of British politics.”
He said,
“Only 13 per cent of Britons are confident Keir Starmer will remain in post after the next election, while a striking 41 per cent say they simply don’t know what the next elected government will look like.”
Mr Tryl added, “In fact, the public rate Nigel Farage’s chances of becoming prime minister as highly as those of the current PM, with Reform voters particularly convinced their man will be walking into Downing Street. It’s yet another sign of the Reform leader’s ability to cast a political shadow far larger than his party’s presence in Westminster.”