UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – A report from the Labour-linked think tank highlights that Keir Starmer’s focus on centrist voters has secured Labour a large majority but leaves the party with a weak mandate for real progress.
According to the Thin Ice report from Compass, Labour should focus more on the threat from the Liberal Democrats and Greens, rather than on Reform UK or the Conservatives.
Polling of the reports reveals that more than twice the number of Labour voters from July would consider switching to right-wing one, and four out of 10 do not strongly identify as supporters.
Labour secured Commons majority of 174 with 411 MPs, compared to the Conservatives 121, but this was achieved with just over a third of the total vote, influenced by the first-past-the-post system.
The Compass report reveals that Labour’s victory may not be as solid as it seems, pointing out that 131 seats with small majorities below 5,000, and that the drop in votes count in the 31 “red wall” seats taken back from the Conservatives compared to 2019.
The report states, “They won [in those seats] because they were not the Tories, because Tory voters stayed at home and because Reform split the regressive vote.”
It added, “The 2024 general election was a one-off event in which unprecedented Tory ineptitude met almost unparalleled Labour discipline, but without any deep expression of what, if any, change Labour was offering.”
The report reveals that Labour’s election strategy played a key role in winning seats effectively. The report said, “However, the timidity of this strategy, resting on ‘not being the Tories’, is a timebomb.”
According to the report, in 202 seats won by Labour or other progressive parties, the combined votes of Conservatives and Reform UK exceeded the winning party’s vote.
The report highlights a risk from the left, with the Greens securing second place in 39 seats, many of which are Labour strongholds. A further drop in Labour’s vote could see seats shift to the Conservatives.
The polling data shows that Labour’s support is more at risk from the left, with 48% of July voters likely to consider the Greens or Lib Dems over the 23% attracted to the Tories or Reform. The report warns Labour against making hasty moves to the right.
According to the report, Compass has urged Labour to support proportional representation, arguing a PR system would provide more room for bold policies. It notes that in every election since 1979 (excluding 2015), progressive parties have outperformed right-wing ones in vote share.
The Compass report stated, “By backing first-past-the-post, Labour narrows its path to power to only those moments it can win over default Tory voters. These voters only back the Labour Party when the Conservative Party has proved itself unfit to govern (like 1997 and 2024) and Labour positions itself as a ‘safe bet’ promising not to change anything very much.”
It added, “Labour does not have to wait in the wings for the right to lose; it can win on its own progressive terms.”
The Compass’s director, Neal Lawson stated, “Voters now are less party-aligned and more volatile than they have ever been. If Labour fails to deliver in government, its huge but fragile majority will crumble, sending us on a bullet train to the populist right.”
He added, “But this isn’t inevitable. Labour can begin to assemble a coalition based on the UK’s progressive majority that will deliver lasting change and then allow it to win again.”