The Middle East stands on the brink of a potentially devastating conflict as tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese movement, escalate.
Recent developments have heightened fears of a full-scale war, with cross-border attacks intensifying and both sides preparing for potential large-scale military engagements.
Last Wednesday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah issued stark threats, claiming that no part of Israel would be safe in the event of war and that even Cyprus, an EU member state, along with other Mediterranean areas, would be in danger. This marked a significant escalation in the ongoing exchange of heated rhetoric between the two parties.
The conflict has reached a critical point where many believe Israel may need to address the threat from its northern front without further delay.
The Israeli military announced last week that it had approved a plan to push the militant group further from the border but expressed a preference for a diplomatic resolution. Nasrallah reiterated that Hezbollah does not seek war but warned that current hostilities could escalate into a broader conflict.
Meanwhile, US officials have assured a delegation of top Israeli officials visiting Washington that the Biden administration would support Israel if a northern war were to erupt, CNN reported late Friday.
However, Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stated that the US is unlikely to assist Israel in the event of a broader war with Hezbollah, according to the Associated Press.
“It is harder to fend off the shorter-range rockets that Hezbollah fires routinely across the border into Israel,” Brown was quoted as saying.
Triggers for Escalation
Hezbollah and Israel’s military have been trading fire almost daily since the start of the war in Gaza following the October 7 Hamas attack on Israeli settlements and military bases in southern Israel, which resulted in an estimated 1,200 Israeli deaths and 250 hostages.
Israel retaliated with a military assault on Gaza, which health authorities report has killed more than 37,400 people, mostly civilians, and left much of the population homeless and destitute.
Hezbollah has stated that its campaign aims to support the Palestinian people and the resistance in Gaza. The group also mentioned that it would not cease its attacks unless a ceasefire is achieved in Gaza.
Hezbollah’s attacks increased after Israel expanded its offensive into the southern Gaza city of Rafah in May and surged further in June after an Israeli strike killed high-ranking Hezbollah commander Taleb Sami Abdullah. The group responded by launching hundreds of drones and rockets at Israel.
Israel has retaliated aggressively against Hezbollah, targeting senior members and locations deeper inside Lebanon.
Since hostilities began along the Israel-Lebanon border on October 8, at least 480 people have been killed in Lebanon, mostly fighters but including at least 93 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, at least 15 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed, according to Israeli authorities.
Tens of thousands of people on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border have been displaced.
This has intensified political pressure in Israel for tougher action.
“Within certain factions of the Israeli war cabinet, there is a palpable temptation to embark on a headlong rush to expand the conflict,” Karim Bitar, professor of international relations at Saint Joseph’s University in Beirut, told Al Arabiya English. “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under immense pressure to restore calm to the north and bring back security, especially given that so many Israelis have been displaced from the area. To the Israeli government, the status quo is no longer acceptable.”
Hezbollah’s Deterrence Strategy and Weapons
Hezbollah’s approach to its conflict with Israel involves calculated aggression, aiming to maintain a deterrent posture without provoking a full-scale war. This strategy is demonstrated by periodic attacks intended to showcase its capability and readiness for conflict while avoiding an outright war.
The group has been gradually revealing its new arsenal. On June 8, Hezbollah escalated the conflict by launching Falaq 2 rockets at a military target in northern Israel. This marked the first use of this particular weapon, an enhanced version of the Falaq 1 rocket previously used by Hezbollah. The Iranian-made Falaq 2 boasts a longer range and a larger warhead compared to its predecessor.
Hezbollah has also demonstrated proficiency in downing Israeli drones and possesses a large fleet of drones, one of which recently conducted an extended flight over the port city of Haifa undetected. The nine-minute video captured by the surveillance drone showed high-security Israeli locations, including military bases, weapons depots, missiles, maritime ports, and airports in Haifa.
Nasrallah stated that this was part of Hezbollah’s “psychological warfare” against its adversary. Shortly after the video surfaced, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned that the country was nearing a critical juncture where it might consider changing its approach toward Hezbollah and Lebanon. He cautioned that in a full-scale conflict, “Hezbollah will be destroyed and Lebanon will be severely hit.”
Hanin Ghaddar, the Friedman Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, stated that Hezbollah’s goal was to “establish deterrence” following the release of another threatening video by the group, which showcased vital Israeli targets.
“Rhetorical escalation is increasing, but based on the group’s patterns of rhetoric, Nasrallah is threatening war to prevent one,” she wrote on X on June 23.
Firas Maksad, an adjunct professor at George Washington University and a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, suggests that Hezbollah’s capacity to deter Israel is constrained.
“The group’s primary focus lies in manipulating the military balance of power to its advantage. However, it appears to overlook the intricate political landscape within Israel. Even voices traditionally critical of Netanyahu now advocate for a more robust stance against Hezbollah,” Maksad told Al Arabiya English. “These evolving domestic political dynamics in Israel could prove pivotal in shaping whether Israel chooses to escalate into an offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. This contrasts sharply with Hezbollah’s singular emphasis on altering the military calculus, highlighting a potential mismatch between its strategic goals and the broader political realities influencing Israel’s decision-making process.”
Diplomacy Amid Rising Concerns
While Hezbollah focuses on maintaining deterrence through proportional attacks, Israel weighs the costs of invading Lebanon based on past experiences and the implications of opening a second war front beyond Gaza.
It is believed that neither Israel nor Hezbollah wants to initiate a war. Such a conflict, involving two heavily armed adversaries, could lead to widespread devastation. Additionally, it could potentially draw in Hezbollah’s supporter, Iran, and the US, Israel’s primary ally.
“Throughout history, wars have often erupted unexpectedly, even when neither side actively sought them,” Bitar noted. “Today, one could argue that neither Israel, Hezbollah, nor the Iranian regime desires a full-fledged regional war. However, heightened emotions and the potential for miscalculation by any party could swiftly escalate into a broader conflict, with Lebanese civilians bearing the brunt of the consequences. While Israel would undoubtedly suffer significant impact, it is the already beleaguered Lebanese civilian population that stands to endure the greatest hardship, compounded by years of previous tragedies.”
The last all-out war between the two occurred in 2006 when Hezbollah fighters crossed the Israel-Lebanon border, captured two Israeli soldiers, and killed three others.
This led to a month-long conflict marked by intense fighting and widespread destruction, resulting in the deaths of around 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 157 Israelis, mostly soldiers. Israel launched a massive military campaign to weaken Hezbollah’s military capabilities, while the Lebanese group fired thousands of rockets into northern Israel.
Since then, Hezbollah’s military strength has expanded significantly, with estimates from the United States and Israel suggesting the group possesses upwards of 150,000 missiles and rockets. It has also gained battlefield experience in Syria, where it supported Bashar al-Assad’s regime alongside Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps during the Syrian civil war.
Nasrallah stated in 2021 that Hezbollah has 100,000 fighters. The CIA World Factbook estimated in 2022 that Hezbollah had up to 45,000 fighters, divided between approximately 20,000 full-time and 25,000 reserve personnel.
The US is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to avert an escalation, with President Joe Biden’s senior adviser Amos Hochstein recently meeting with officials in Lebanon and Israel. Hochstein emphasized the seriousness of the situation, stressing the urgent need for a diplomatic resolution to avoid a broader conflict.
Analysts suggest that Washington’s failure to enforce a ceasefire in Gaza, combined with Iran and Hezbollah’s resolve to impose costs on Israel through their activities in Lebanon, could obstruct prospects for a resolution through diplomatic means.
“A diplomatic resolution remains a possibility, albeit a narrow one,” Maksad pointed out. “To achieve this, Hezbollah would need to consider withdrawing its elite fighters and anti-tank units from the border regions. While this step wouldn’t guarantee success, it could pave the way for diplomatic progress. However, it’s uncertain whether Hezbollah would agree to such terms, nor whether Israel would find them sufficient.”
