LONDON (Parliament Politics Magazine) – The Government should consider introducing “Hungarian style” pro-marriage policies to reverse decline in people tying the knot.
In just a couple of days the UK Government will have a new Parliamentary leader, replacing Boris Johnson. While the new PM, will face many challenges, the ongoing war in Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis and rising inflation will be among them, however one area they must not neglect is reversing the decline in marriage rates.
Yes, it is true that a significant part of the recent decline was due to the impact of the COVID lockdowns, which will rebound over the next year or so, however there has also been a worrying and long-term drift away from marrying and not just in this country, but across most of Europe.
On average, there were 12-16 percent fewer marriages in the northern European countries of Scandinavia and the Baltic, 23 percent fewer in Western Europe, 24 percent fewer in Eastern Europe, and 42 percent fewer in the Mediterranean countries of Southern Europe
This decline has led some UK commentators to wrongly argue that marriage is no longer relevant in the modern world, but this simply not supported by the data, as even a cursory look reveals that the drop in marriage rates has been most acute among the bottom two socio-economic groups, while those in the top two continue to see marriage as the gold standard of relationships and continue to enjoy the many benefits it seems to confer.
There is one country in Europe that has bucked this trend – Hungary Marriage rates in Hungary have now risen by 92 percent between 2010 and 2020, taking their ranking from 28th in Europe to 1st, the result of a decade of family-friendly policies aimed primarily at encouraging an increase in fertility.
What we are witnessing in Hungary, is nothing short of a miracle when it comes to marriage rates and proof that with the right policies and financial incentives, we can reverse the decline in the number of people tying the knot.
As previous research from Marriage Foundation has shown this is particularly important for those on lower incomes, who overwhelmingly want to get married, but due to a range of factors including cost do not. This is why we have seen the development of a ‘marriage gap’ between the richest and poorest couples. Indeed, when we surveyed over 2,000 young people and asked if they wanted to marry, 87 percent said yes. However, when we compared their answers with who actually gets married, controlling for age, education and other factors there was a deeply troubling gap, of 39 percent between those on the highest and lowest incomes.
What this means in practice is just a third of those classed as semi-skilled workers and fewer than four in 10 casual labourers get married. This compares to over three-quarters of those in higher managerial jobs such as doctors, lawyers, headteachers and Members of Parliament.
This is why, while not endorsing all of Hungary’s policies including those on immigration and same-sex marriage, the Government should look at the reasons why Hungary was the only country in Europe to see a rise in marriage rates during 2020, albeit a rather modest 3 percent.
Of course the logical question, is why the difference between the UK and Hungary? So, let’s contrast British family policy with Hungarian family policy. Whereas Hungary actively encourages marriage via financial incentives, Britain actively discourages marriage via financial disincentives.
In the UK, there are no overt tax advantages to being married rather than cohabiting. Since the 1990s, HMRC has treated cohabiting couples as ‘living together as if married’.
The UK government’s major policy on supporting marriage amounts to little more than lip service. Low-income couples can transfer part of their tax allowance from the higher earner and gain up to £250 per year.
However, the very same low-income families stand to lose as much as £10,000 every year of tax credit or Universal Credit entitlement if they live together or marry. This is because welfare is assessed on total household income. Move-in or marry and their income is added to the household. In fact, that is also the case even if married couples are not living together under the same roof for whatever reason.
With these disincentives in the UK welfare system, the surprise is that any low-income couples bother to marry at all. Why this matter is that married families are typically more stable, pay more tax, and require fewer benefits. Fewer marriages, therefore, means more family breakdown, less tax and higher welfare bills.
This is why the next Prime Minister, must address the appalling couple penalty in our existing benefits system and start supporting married couples if its serious about reversing the decline in marriage rates and ensuring that the many benefits are available to all and not just the rich. Hungary provides a model of what can be done when a Government decides to take positive action over a long period and unequivocally say that marriage is the gold standard of relationships.