UK army chief warns of rising threats and urges boost in combat power

London (Parliament Politics Magazine) – The UK has to boost the lethality of its army or be ready to fight a battle in three years as particular threats from Russia, China and Iran come to a head around 2027, the new head of the army has cautioned.

What Are Gen Sir Roly Walker’s Concerns About Future Conflicts?

Gen Sir Roly Walker, the chief of the general staff, briefed reporters that the West encountered “an axis of uncertainty” with growing military ambition and that a confrontation involving one of the four nations could lead to “a significant detonation” in another theatre. Walker claimed that the UK and its partners had to be ready “to deter or fight a war in three years”, in an estimate based on China’s hatred of Taiwan and Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

What Threats Does Gen Walker Identify for the UK?

The army chief noted US assessments that China’s president, Xi Jinping, had questioned for the country’s military to be prepared to invade Taiwan in 2027 – as well as situations that Iran could seek to break the nuclear agreement that is intended to prevent it creating an atomic weapon while the war in Ukraine is continuing.

Momentarily after the briefing, Walker stated he had “a bold ambition” for the British army “to double our combat power in three years and triple by the end of the decade”, not with extra resources but by utilising technology and techniques designed on the battlefields of Ukraine, such as drones.

The army chief claimed that “we are not on an inexorable path to war” but added that “what we do have is an absolute hurry to restore credible hard power to underwrite deterrence”, at a time when the new Labour government has just started a strategic defence review after the election.

How Is the Labour Government Addressing Defence Spending?

The new army chief’s remarks come at a time when the size of the British army is at its least for 300 years, having donated tanks, missiles, artillery and enormous amounts of ammunition to Ukraine – and will be decoded by some as a plea for future investment in a service deemed in need of modernisation. While the Labour government has decided to lift defence spending from the current ratio of 2.32% of GDP – £64.6bn – to 2.5%, it has not yet dedicated to a firm timetable.

What Are the Key Objectives of the New Defence Review?

A week ago, the man directing Labour’s defence review, the former NATO secretary General George Robertson, cautioned that Britain and its partners were facing a “deadly quartet” of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, who he characterised as “nations working increasingly together”. Walker’s intervention came as Adm Sir Tony Radakin, the chief of defence staff, stated the British army could explain extra investment if its effectiveness enhanced, though he stopped short of requesting more money while Labour ministers reviewed the public finances.

He stated the army was “focused on doubling the combat power of land forces by 2027 and to triple it by the end of the decade”, claiming that politicians would react if land forces could do more for less.

Labour has started a strategic defence review after the general election, at a time when there are calls to increase defence spending in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.