China and Russia are both major superpowers in the east and both have a keen eye as to the happenings of Central Asia. They both want to diminish the United States influence and power on the region, and with the Taliban retaking Afghanistan after the U.S. pulled out, things are looking good for them.
While they will never form a formal alliance due to the destruction that would cause their own foreign policy agenda, it is worth mentioning that they are two wings of the same bird. Russia being deeply involved in the security of the region, and China is the economic power of Central Asia.
The region of Central Asia consists of China, Russia, Afghanistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, China’s and Russia’s security agendas complement one another. They both agree they do not want the United States to return, and they see Central Asia as they key to their own security.
Still, China and Russia have different interests and concerns about the region. China wants to establish secure borders in the Xinjiang region. They also are concerned with ensuring the Taliban can come down on Uyghur groups. Russia’s worries are in the possibility of unstable borders within Central Asia; they want to maintain cooperation and curb the influx of refugees into Eurasia.
But this friendship, if one can even call it that, is doubtful to go the distance. With China’s power and influence ever-increasing, Russia’s shadow of the region seems to be shrinking.
As mentioned earlier, China is the economic power in the region, but they’ve been growing their military and security presence too. The Chinese government has been offering weapons and training to Central Asian states. They’ve built a military base in Tajikistan, their intentions being to defend national interest in Xinjiang rather than to diminish Russia’s role in Central Asia. However, Russia was never consulted before the base was built – with Tajikistan being a long-standing military ally, it was a slight.
But Russia remains ahead, holding 62 percent of the regional arms market and due to the historical and linguistic ties to the region.
There are signs that China will edge ahead in the coming years. They are focused on education-based diplomacy, initiation a ten-year plan for Shanghai Cooperation Organization members – this includes four of the Central Asian nations. Some nations are even making the Chinese language compulsory.
So, while Russia and China seem to have come together temporarily to secure Central Asia, it doesn’t seem like their comradery will last long. Especially if the Republic of China becomes the senior partner and surpasses Russia as a world superpower.