Vladimir Putin has been banging the anti-NATO drum for over 20 years, and that message has worked: Russia has been able to scare its neighbors into the arms of NATO. But, a massive land invasion of Ukraine would take a significant mobilization of Russian forces. And what can the West do to avoid such an outcome? Several options exist. First, the West must declare that all options are on the table and support this declaration with increased troop levels. Second, NATO should position troops in nations adjacent to Ukraine. Third, it should explain that despite the indestructible nature of the conflict, such actions will not provoke an invasion of the country.
Invasion is a constant risk, yet it does not fit into Putin’s hybrid strategy. The Russian establishment has repeatedly promoted the narrative of a brotherly and under-control nation in Ukraine. Even the Russian president has written articles explaining why he thinks Ukraine must be saved, thereby allowing the Russians to seize control of the eastern half of the country. However, the risk of invasion is much higher than most analysts think.
If Putin invades Ukraine, the Western response must be equally strong. Despite bipartisan and unreserved support for the Ukrainian government, this does not guarantee that Washington will act to deter Russian aggression. Moreover, strong words don’t necessarily translate into action in the event of a Russian invasion. If NATO forces are in position to retaliate, it will be too late to prevent the invasion from happening.
President Obama’s meeting with Putin was a step toward ensuring that the US is a neutral party in the conflict. Nevertheless, Russia’s military might overwhelm Ukraine’s forces, which is why President Biden’s approach is a good first step. But the US is also trying to accommodate Russia. After all, the U.S. is the biggest stakeholder, so we have to make sure that it remains neutral in the future.
According to the U.S. president, he has discussed the situation with Putin. The president has also pledged more military assistance, but he did not say what the costs would be. While there’s a chance that the Russian invasion will be costly to the Western world, it would not be a good strategy for the Ukrainian people. But if he does, the Western response must be strong enough to deter the attack.
While NATO’s buildup in the Black Sea has been a major escalation, there is no reason why the United States should back down. If Putin is indeed a real threat, it should not be a surprise. Neither will the NATO. As Russia’s military posture is increasingly aggressive, it should be wary of the West. Its alleged provocation has a major impact on NATO and the Kremlin.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a major mistake, but the Ukrainian government has not yet declared itself ready to attack a country. While Putin may be angry, the Russians do not have the intelligence to back down. It is possible that the U.S. will use these threats to justify their own actions. A Russian invasion would be a serious strategic mistake. So, the European Union must be prepared. If not, it will have to take measures to prevent the situation.
The Russian military has a lot to lose, too. Its own country is more vulnerable to the terrorism threat than any other country. The Russians should back off, since the cost of a Ukrainian invasion would be too high. If it does, Russia should withdraw immediately. It should also refrain from pursuing economic sanctions, and stop provoking the conflict. So, if it does, why not?
Another alternative is to launch a limited offensive. While a full-scale invasion would be an unprecedented step, a limited offensive would be more likely. It would target the occupied areas of Crimea and Donbas. The United States could also deploy forces from Western Europe. This is a major red flag for the Russians. A military invasion would exacerbate the situation and create chaos. And the U.S. is in no position to prevent it.