UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – A by-election in Runcorn & Helsby could see Reform UK secure a seat following Labour MP Mike Amesbury’s prison sentence for assault.
A by-election in Runcorn & Helsby expects Reform UK to gain its sixth MP, as Nigel Farage’s party appears set to take the seat.
After Labour MP Mike Amesbury was sentenced to 10 weeks in jail for attacking a man, top pollster Luke Tryl predicts that Reform UK will take the Labour seat.
What does Luke Tryl say about Reform UK’s chances in the upcoming by-election?
Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, stated,
“The dynamics of the now inevitable by-election – low turnout, an unpopular national government, a disgraced former MP, and Reform already in second place – mean that despite the large Labour majority, Reform would be disappointed not to win given their current polling and momentum.”
Why will a by-election be held in Runcorn & Helsby?
The court has announced a 10-week prison sentence for the MP of Runcorn & Helsby after being convicted of assaulting a man during a night out.
Following pressure to step down from the seat, a by-election could occur, with Reform UK hoping to claim the seat. If Amesbury declines to step down, a by-election could be initiated through a petition signed by 10% of his constituents.
Did the Labour MP admit to assaulting Mr Fellows?
At a January hearing, the Labour MP confessed to attacking 45-year-old Paul Fellows on Main Street in Frodsham, Cheshire, in the early hours of October 26.
Deputy Chief Magistrate Tan Ikram said the MP’s behaviour was the result of “anger and losing emotional control.”
Mr Ikram added,
“You were out drunk in the early hours. The attack was unprovoked. Being in the drink is no excuse and as a member of parliament, you could reasonably expect a robust challenge from constituents and members of the public.”
He continued,
“You continued the attack whilst the victim was on the ground. This incident may well not have come to an end had the bystander not intervened. Your conduct would have had impact on others watching on. You continued to rant as you left.”
The court heard that Amesbury had been drinking before arriving at the taxi rank, where Mr Fellows approached him to discuss the town’s bridge closure.
Amesbury was reported to have shouted at Mr. Fellows, stating,
“Don’t ever threaten me again. You won’t threaten the MP again, will you?”
How did Labour respond to MP Amesbury’s behaviour with the elderly citizen?
A Labour spokesman stated,
“The Labour Party took swift action following Mike Amesbury’s completely unacceptable actions and he is no longer a Labour MP or a member of the Labour Party.
The party representative added,
“It is right that Mr Amesbury pleaded guilty and has now been sentenced. Residents in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency deserved better and we look forward to them getting the representation they deserve in the future with a new Labour MP.”
What does the Reform UK say about Ambesbury’s seat?
Nigel Farage’s party is demanding Amesbury’s resignation. The party Chairman, Zia Yusuf stated,
“Today Mike Amesbury has been sentenced to 10 weeks in prison. The great people of Runcorn deserve far better than waiting six weeks for a recall petition to take place.”
He added,
“We call on Mike Amesbury to do the honourable thing and resign immediately so a by-election can be held.”
How will the Runcorn & Helsby by-election affect Labour?
The Runcorn & Helsby by-election will be the first of this current parliament, presenting a major test for Labour, which won the seat with a 14,696 majority last summer. Reform UK, which came second with 18% of the vote, and the Tories, who had 16%, will also be under pressure.