UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Reform UK aide Gawain Towler hinted Tory MPs may merge with the party under shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick, with an open-door approach for defectors.
As reported by The Independent, a Nigel Farage ally signals the Tories may merge with Reform UK if Robert Jenrick leads after the election.
What did Gawain Towler reveal about Robert Jenrick and a Tory-Reform merger?
Gawain Towler, a longtime Nigel Farage aide and Reform board member, said Jenrick and a few Tory MPs could leave the Conservatives for Reform UK.
Reform’s former communications director said Mr Jenrick would avoid leading a “rump party.”
Speaking on the PopConversations podcast, Mr Towler criticized Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey, saying,
“This is not a man who’s gonna spend his time on trampolines and going down water flumes as a third party leader.”
He added,
“I could possibly see him bringing a small handful over with him, but it could work, there are all sorts of ways.”
Mr Towler said,
“Could I see a situation where in a post electoral sort of devastation, that sort of post-apocalyptic landscape of the Conservative Party after the next general election, could I see a rump Tories becoming sort of like the Liberal Unionists in the 1890s, Jenrick as a sort of Joe Chamberlain bringing his raggle-taggle army over with him.”
He stated,
“I can’t see someone like Robert Jenrick wanting to be the leader of a rump party.”
The Liberal Unionists formed an alliance with the Conservatives in the 1890s, merging completely by 1912.
A Reform UK spokesperson dismissed Mr Towler’s claims, saying,
“Robert Jenrick will not be joining Reform UK.”
Mr Towler suggested Reform is open to Tory MPs, arguing the party “has to win.”
Last month, Danny Kruger, former political secretary to ex-PM Boris Johnson and Mr Jenrick’s campaign manager, defected to Reform UK, following Nadine Dorries, who called the Tory party “dead.”
Mr Towler stated,
“There is that feeling from those of us who have been members a long time of what’s going on, why are we letting all these blighters in? They voted the wrong way, left, right, and centre. But there’s also a realisation.”
He said,
“We have to win. We have to win. And we’re not going to win from the 40,000 members that were there at the general election in 2024.”
Mr Farage’s ally added,
“We’re now on almost 250,000 members. We passed 245,000 this week. Many of those will have been Tories.”
What did Robert Jenrick say about Tory party reforms and deals?
Robert Jenrick, a former Tory leadership contender, said a deal with Reform is “not a priority,” though he appeared less certain when questioned.
He stated,
“Kemi has been very clear, as in fact has Nigel Farage, that we are not in the business of pacts and deals. I don’t think there is going to be a deal and I don’t think that’s the right approach.”
Mr Jenrick said,
“What we’ve got to do as a party is change. We’ve got to learn the lessons of the past. We let people down when we were in office. We’ve got to learn the lessons, change the party and win those people back.”
He added,
“I want the Tory Party to be once again the natural home of all the ‘small c’ Conservatives inn the country.”
What did Sir John Curtice say about Lib Dems outpacing Conservatives?
Sir John Curtice warns that the Liberal Democrats could win more seats than the Conservatives if current polling holds.
He told a Conservative conference fringe panel in Manchester that the party must first reach “base camp” before tackling the electoral “Himalayas” of regaining power.
Mr Curtice said,
“The Liberal Democrat vote is now much more geographically concentrated than your vote, and the electoral system is now treating you like it treated the Liberal Democrats.”
He stated,
“And so the Liberal Democrats are just behind you in the polls, they are going to almost undoubtedly win more seats than you.”
The polling expert said,
“The Johnsonian coalition of 2019 has been ripped from underneath you by Reform. And so that realignment of British politics that occurred in 2019, it’s still there, don’t think that Brexit doesn’t matter in our politics. It’s fundamental.”
How many seats will Reform UK, Labour, and the Conservatives get?
YouGov’s latest MRP survey reveals a shift in UK politics. Reform UK is projected to win 311 seats, just 15 short of a parliamentary majority.
Labour would fall to 144 seats, while the Conservatives drop further to 45. The Liberal Democrats are set to take 78 seats, with the SNP on 37, Greens 7, Plaid Cymru 6, and others 3.