Last week, two former military chiefs, Lord Richards and Lord Dannatt, both condemned the Government’s decision to boost defence spending by slashing the aid budget. They made their point clear. National security is not simply about military power. It is about all pillars of our foreign policy – defence, development and diplomacy – all complementing each other.
The world is in its most unstable and unpredictable stage in decades – certainly since the Cuban Missile Crisis and perhaps since 1945. The UK and the West face a dangerous new axis of autocracies – Russia, China and Iran – who are hell-bent on diminishing our role in the world and creating a global order which allows them to dominate their respective regions. To make this vision a reality, these regimes are looking to the developing world. With the US dismantling USAID, followed by the UK’s retreat from development, that vision is closer than ever.
Moscow is aggressively reacting to development crises across Africa, Latin America and the Middle East to boost its global posture. Russian paramilitaries, directed by the GRU – Putin’s military intelligence agency – have been active in securing under-pressure regimes, undermining democratic practices, increasing corruption, and gaining a stranglehold on critical resources. It has been a successful strategy. Russia managed to avoid international isolation after its illegal invasion of Ukraine, its war effort has been partially funded by its malign activities, and the number of developing states aligning themselves with Russia has actually increased. As Moscow is set to become more aggressive towards Europe and the UK, we have marginalised ourselves from the rest of the world.
Iran remains a direct threat to the UK. Tehran’s global outlook is shaped decisively by the destruction of Israel and the West. Indeed, Ayatollah Khamenei has openly stated that Iran has many enemies, “but foremost among them are America and this very evil Britain.” Its strategy relies on proxies, fuelled by economic despair and weak governance. Without addressing the root causes that drive individuals to join Iranian proxies, they will see a resurgence and potentially revert back to international terrorism including on UK soil, as has been warned by Sir John Sawers, the former head of MI6. Iranian influence thrives where youth prospects are bleak, turning terrorism into a job rather than an ideological mission. Likewise, the decline in the quality and effectiveness of governance in the region has boosted Iranian influence, as proxies have started to fulfil basic state functions.
Then comes China, the richest and most powerful partner of the new axis. It is far more proactive than its partners, with its Belt and Road Initiative strengthening its geopolitical and military power. President Xi has made clear that he wishes to use China-dominated supply chains spanning from its investments across the developing world to challenge the West and achieve political and economic dominance. Meanwhile, it is well on the way to having a globally operational military, lining up at least fifteen overseas bases across the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans in nations where it is the primary economic partner.
Slashing our aid budget does not just undermine our humanitarian efforts – it kneecaps our strategic interests. First, it harms our ability to deal with Russian and Iranian belligerence. High poverty, a lack of economic opportunities, and weak governance and institutions all drive fragility and instability, providing the prime conditions for these hostile states to grow in power, impact and influence.
Concurrently, to outcompete China, we need the support of the private sector. The bad news is, by cutting aid, we will only increase the risk of investments, making it nearly impossible for Western businesses to want to operate where China does. It is a gift to Beijing and one that we will sorely regret.
Investing smartly in development is an investment for our own security. A £6 billion defence boost will not significantly enhance our military might and deter conflict with Russia, but a £6 billion cut to development will worsen global instability and cripple the UK’s influence. Russia, China and Iran will be jumping for joy.
Cutting aid is a gift to our adversaries
