The departure of the UK from the EU in December 2020 was one of the most significant events in contemporary British history. Brexit has transformed the UK political, economic and social landscape in such a way that it fundamentally alters the arrangements and assumptions that determined UK-European relations for generations of British citizens since the Second World War.
This article takes stock and affords a timely and thorough account of Brexit’s total effects on the UK experience for the last five years, in relation to the benefits and burdens of the UK ‘brexiting’; effects of ‘brexit’ on rights of citizens, trade and business; and the prospects for Great Britain as it continues to experience political and economic change, alongside the other countries of Europe and the rest of the world.
The constitutional and political context of Brexit
A mixture of concerns about sovereignty, economic factors, and discussions around cultural identity drove Brexit. The referendum in the summer of 2016 exposed deep divisions within the UK about its relationship with the EU.
The constitutional arrangements of the UK felt challenged by the issue, in particular around the authority of Parliament to make such a choice, and how sovereignty was to return from the EU institutions. Leaving the EU had to reconsider legal relationships and trade deals, while at the same time requiring the UK to explore its position globally and domestically.
Pros and cons of Brexit: A balanced perspective
Opponents raised economic consequences associated with less access to that market, damaged supply chains, and increased costs of trading with the Continent stemming from delays and checking customs and differences in regulatory standards. There were apprehensions about the financial sector, labor market mobility, and potential loss of foreign influence.
Impact on citizens’ rights: The citizens rights directive and its evolution
Brexit required adjustments to the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and British citizens living in the EU. The Citizens Rights Directive was EU legislation safeguarding free movement and residence, which was repealed and replaced by UK-specific migration and residence policies. EU citizens were required to apply for ‘settled status’ under the EU Settlement Scheme before June 30, 2021, to retain their rights.
Such changes created uncertainty and increased administrative work; they were a response to the council of state balancing the need to control migration whilst providing protections for long-term residents. Equally, the regulatory framework supporting British citizens’ rights in EU countries needed to be renegotiated through bilateral agreements, introducing forms of new complexities regarding residency and work across the border.
Economic impacts: Trade, businesses, and the UK economy
Brexit has had a significant impact on the economy and businesses within the UK. Following the UK’s departure from the Customs Union and Single Market arose customs obligations, tariffs (where applicable), and regulatory divergence, specifically affecting trade in goods.
Studies estimate that UK goods exports to the EU reduced between 6% and 30%, compared to what would have been exported if the UK remained in the EU. Small and medium-sized businesses have suffered disproportionately from Brexit due to increased paperwork and compliance costs.
In contrast, UK exports in services, including finance, advertising, and consulting, demonstrated resilience despite access to some passporting rights in the EU being lost. The UK Office for Budget Responsibility has predicted that the overall economic shrinkage from the changes to trading relationship is about four percent in the long-term as a result of these trade frictions, which equates to an estimated £100 billion loss.
Data protection and the GDPR post-Brexit: New regulatory environment
Following Brexit, there was a decisive change in data protection frameworks. The EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) continues to inform UK law, while the UK adopted the UK GDPR, a regulation vested with the same legal effect, but altered to account for national needs.
The EU approved “adequacy” status for the UK, allowing transfers and exchanges of data to continue. Ongoing monitoring is taking place in both directions to ensure sustained commitment to EU compliance principles. The regulatory situation means firms in the UK receiving or holding EU personal data must continue to comply with the data privacy laws of both the EU, and the UK, which makes the regulation of related digital trade and services more complicated.
UK exports and global trade developments
In the aftermath of Brexit, the UK has entered into various trade deals on its own, including agreements with Australia and New Zealand. While these agreements are diplomatic achievements, it is agreed by analysts that they hold limited economic weight compared to the value of trade between the UK and EU.
Trade statistics show that imports from the EU have recovered more quickly than UK exports to the EU, which has caused trade imbalances. As smooth access to the EU market no longer exists, UK companies have started to relocate parts of their supply chains to the EU in order to remain competitive.
Ramifications for the future of Great Britain
The implications of Brexit go beyond economics, they also relate to issues of political unity and a coherent geopolitical role for Britain. The Northern Ireland Protocol created regulatory barriers between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, leading to a frequent cycle of political conflict, along with numerous think-tank proposals to reform it.
More broadly, Brexit has impacted Britain’s “foreign policy” and influence globally, promoting Britain as a “Global Britain” narrative and the UK’s ability to lead trade diplomacy independently and advocate for innovation globally. Finally, Brexit has revived questions about devolution within the UK domestically and constitutional matters within the UK.
Navigating the post-Brexit landscape
The initial five years of Brexit have fundamentally altered the United Kingdom resulting in varying impacts. On the one hand, Brexit has restored some aspects of legislative sovereignty, but on the other hand, it has introduced adjustments in the economy and trade dealing with change. The legal landscape with citizens’ rights has changed, and the data protection arrangements have changed as well. The UK economy is finding its feet in a new global trading environment with the EU and other countries.
Brexit, as a process, is still recalibrating. It is extremely difficult to assess its long-lasting impacts at this time and they will continue to change depending on negotiations in the future, policy choices, and the international economy. It is important to understand the complexities of the “Brexit project” to gain a richer appreciation of Great Britain’s evolution.
Brexit and legislative sovereignty
Among the major reasons mentioned during the Brexit referendum was reclaiming legislative sovereignty returning legislative authority to Parliament from the EU. When Britain left the EU, Parliament returned to full legislative sovereignty over laws that were subject to EU jurisdiction, including laws implementing trade, immigration, and environmental standards. This dynamic affords Britain the legal capacity to shape policies, aligned to British priorities, reflective of the unique demands arising from local contexts, without an obligation to the EU.
Legislative sovereignty entails corresponding responsibilities. The UK must now negotiate its own regulatory systems, trade agreements, and standards on a global level. There is a higher reliance of varying degrees of collective and/or stated sovereignty previously held at an EU level that involved expertise or capacity within UK institutions.
This shift allows formerly constrained behaviour to operate under conditions of liability, and reflects consideration of local context, but it is not straightforward and will require significant local capacity and distributive commitment on the part of British nationals.
Economic adjustments and trade challenges
The economic ramifications are among the most analyzed consequences of Brexit. The UK is no longer able to take advantage of free trade and movement provisions of the EU’s Single Market and Customs Union. This change will introduce new tariffs, customs checks, and increased regulatory divergence. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey indicated in 2025 that Brexit will likely have a prolonged negative effect on UK economic growth for several years, although the adjustment in the longer term should at least partially offset this.
Data indicate that UK goods exports to the EU have decreased, with estimates ranging from 6% to a 30% fall, relative to a hypothetical scenario in which the UK remained a member of the EU. SMEs are facing particularly difficult circumstances because of the greater complexity of customs processes and compliance costs. Nonetheless, the UK’s service sectors, including finance and consulting, have remained healthy, owing to markets with continued access.
The UK continues to engage in a post-Brexit trade policy, which includes efforts to negotiate independent agreements with countries throughout the world. So far, the UK has established new trade agreements with countries such as Australia and New Zealand as part of its ambitions for a “Global Britain” strategy. While these agreements are intended to increase international diplomatic engagement or presence, the economic impact of these international trade agreements has not yet reached the level of significance versus trade with the EU.
Evolution of citizens’ rights frameworks
Brexit prompted a reassessment of citizens’ rights, particularly with respect to freedom of movement. EU citizens living in the UK were required to apply for settled status in order to remain and UK citizens living in member states of the EU had to address residency and work permit conditions. For many, these changes have brought new administrative challenges and uncertainty.
The Citizens Rights Directive framework, which previously guaranteed free and equal movement for citizens of member states, is no longer the framework of rights applicable inside the UK, contrary to domestic immigration law. The developments in citizens’ rights highlight even broader developments in immigration control – the ongoing balancing act of maintaining an open border while enhancing measures to protect national security and public policy objectives.
Data protection and GDPR post-Brexit
After Brexit, the UK adapted its data protection regime by implementing the UK General Data Protection Regulation (UK GDPR), which, while separate, is in essence the same as the EU GDPR. The regimes set out high standards for the protection of personal data both ensuring adequate decisions for data transfers are made by the EU Commission so British businesses can continue to freely share data between the UK and EU.
Though a closer regulatory alignment exists right now, businesses working in both jurisdictions will continue to face challenges, as the regulations will require ongoing monitoring and a risk of divergence. Businesses will be under two regulatory regimes, adding to complexity, but both regimes do afford individuals measures to protect their personal privacy.
UK economy and trade statistics five years on
Economic forecasts from independent sources indicate that Brexit has been a drag on UK GDP by close to 4% compared to a counter-factual continuation. Trade volumes with the EU, the UK’s most important trading partner, have declined by approximately 15%, with substantial declines in manufactured and agricultural exports.
Investment inflows have been slower and firms are finding it a challenge to redesign their supply chains or adapt customs and rules of origin procedures. The economic circumstances are compounded by inflation, which is being experienced globally but has been aggravated by the trade frictions that accompany Brexit. The Office for Budget Responsibility states specifically that the above has covered UK growth potential.
