UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – A new poll predicts Labour’s seat count could drop by 200, with Reform UK evolving as the third-largest party in a hung parliament.
The new seat-by-seat review after the general election reveals another hurdle for Sir Keir, who has had a tough start as leader.
According to an MRP survey by the think tank More in Commons shows that Labour, despite a landslide win in the election, would lose 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform UK, and 26 to the SNP.
Using poll data from over 11,000 people, the analysis, conducted for The Sunday Times, revealed a collapse for Sir Starmer in regions where his party had made major gains, especially in the West Country, where several newly elected MPs are facing growing criticism over changes to inheritance tax rules for farmers.
The Labour Party has faced scrutiny over presents received by the prime minister and prominent cabinet officials. Ministers were also criticised sharply for their stance against compensation to Waspi women, this month.
As reported by the Independent, analysis shows that Labour may lose its many gains, and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party will become the third-largest in Parliament. This finding comes after a Techne UK tracer survey highlighted Reform gaining three points in one week.
The latest survey from More In Commons predicts that the UK may face a hung parliament, with Labour anticipated to win more than a third of the seats if the election were conducted now.
Poll results revealed that seven senior cabinet members could lose their seats, with six to Reform UK, while Health Minister Wes Streeting is projected to lose his Ilford North to an independent nominee.
The analysis also shows that among those losing to Nigel Farage’s party are Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, Defence Secretary John Healey, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds.
A party needs to secure at least 326 seats out of 650 to achieve a majority in the House of Commons.
The executive director of More in Common, Luke Tryl stated, “There is no doubt that many voters have found the start of the Starmer government disappointing, and Labour’s estimated vote share would drop significantly were there to be an election tomorrow.”
He added, “Far from the usual electoral honeymoon, our model estimates that Labour would lose nearly 200 of the seats they won in July’s election.”
Mr Tryl said the new government had faced backlash for decisions like means testing the winter fuel allowance and other budget actions.
According to More In Common, electoral fragmentation has risen since the July election.
The analysis also suggests that the two-party system in the UK might end, with 271 seats won by parties that receive under a third of the public’s vote.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sir Keir, the Chancellor, and the Business Secretary have written letters to Britain’s prominent regulators to come up with plans to enhance the economy.
Just before Christmas, they reached out to watchdogs like Ofgem and Ofwat and urged them to present reform ideas by 15 January.
BBC reports that this letter proves that the prime minister wants to use all government departments and regulators to focus on helping Labour’s goal of the best long-term economic growth in the G7 countries.
This month, Sir Starmer told MPs that it would take time for people to notice improvements in living standards.