UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Labour MPs say Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership is secure until the May elections, but the budget fails to shift the party’s prospects against Reform UK.
As reported by The Guardian, Labour MPs insist Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position remains safe until the May elections, though most deemed the budget unable to boost the party’s fortunes.
More than a dozen loyal Labour MPs said they see the budget as unlikely to change the party’s chances against Reform, saying “it only delays the inevitable.”
What did Labour MPs say about the budget’s impact on the party?
Ahead of the budget, MPs reported being “love bombed” after Chancellor Rachel Reeves met over 100 MPs and mentioned many by name in her speech.
One MP said,
“Everyone is getting photo ops and invites to Chequers.
The budget doesn’t change the fundamentals that they are one crap decision away from catastrophe.”
MPs on the party’s right expressed concern that the budget focused on bond markets and backbenchers rather than ordinary voters, whose incomes would be squeezed due to welfare changes and the two-child benefit cap.
One Labour figure said,
“It’s a tactical victory, the political and economic trends are all still heading in the wrong direction and it’s not going to turn any of that around. There simply isn’t a wider economic or political story that gives you any idea where we’re going or what this is for, beyond survival. I don’t think it kills challenges stone dead. And it would be better to try to find a way to do it before May.”
A frontbencher MP suggested Health Secretary Wes Streeting might seek votes from the party’s left in any future contest, following his vocal positions on anti-racism, Gaza, and opposition to Reform.
MPs said Streeting could reach the 80-MP threshold, as could Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood if she ran. However, any soft-left candidate might split their support, with only ex-deputy leader Angela Rayner as a potential contender.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has been seen as a potential candidate, but allies say he is unlikely to run for leadership, with one MP close to him noting, “He would want to be a kingmaker if he could.”
The Tribune group, revived by Louise Haigh and Vicky Foxcroft, praised the budget’s key measures, including the removal of the two-child benefit cap, but said future efforts would focus on living standards.
Insiders close to the Prime Minister warn that the upcoming local elections in May could pose a major threat to his leadership.
One Downing Street figure said,
“If the budget is a dangerous moment, then the local elections are perilous.”
Talks are underway at Number 10, led by Mr Miliband’s 2015 campaign manager, Spencer Livermore, on how to reduce the fallout from what is expected to be disastrous local elections in May.
Labour faces fears of heavy losses in council races across England, including London, while Wales could fall to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, and Scotland could see the party slip to third behind the SNP and Reform.
Number 10 figure added,
“We’ve got to have enough of a story to talk about a win, even if the results overall are terrible. If we can find some indicative places where we’ve done well against the Greens or Reform, for example, then we can argue that there’s a route to doing that nationally.”
One MP said,
“Morgan is more positive than most about how we’ll do north of the border but it’s difficult not to worry when you look at the polls. We need to make sure the contest is about who leads Scotland at Holyrood, who will transform public services here, not about what Scottish voters think about Keir, because otherwise we’re stuffed.”
How did Keir Starmer’s team respond to post-budget leadership criticism?
After the autumn budget on Wednesday, 26 November, cabinet ministers, including Wes Streeting and the Prime Minister’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, made the rounds in the Commons, signalling a pause in tensions over Mr Streeting’s leadership speculations.
Sources close to Keir Starmer maintain that he would never have walked away despite potential criticism over the budget.
MPs have observed that the Health Secretary, despite denying leadership ambitions, is supporting soft-left colleagues like Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, with whom he previously clashed privately.
Which party could win the next UK election?
A recent YouGov survey shows that Reform UK is projected to win 311 seats, just 15 short of a majority, making them the likely largest party.
The Labour Party is expected to drop to 144 seats, losing heavily across England, Scotland, and Wales, while the Tories are projected to fall to around 45 seats, with further losses to Reform UK and other parties.
Another YouGov poll found 23% of Labour voters want Keir Starmer to quit immediately, while 22% say he should resign before the next general election.
