UK (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Nigel Farage could win a majority with 362 seats, pushing Labour to 136 and Tories to 22, as Reform UK surges in the latest projections.
As reported by The Independent, Reform UK surges past Labour and Tories; polls show Nigel Farage could win a majority and become the next PM.
What did Electoral Calculus reveal about Nigel Farage’s seat prediction?
Efforts by Sir Keir Starmer to slow Reform UK’s rise failed, as Electoral Calculus predicts Farage could win 362 seats if polls happened tomorrow.
Labour’s seat count would drop from 412 to 136, falling to second place, while the Tories are set to win only 22 seats. It reveals that Labour had a 1% chance of securing a majority without a dramatic shift in its fortunes, the latest forecast reveals.
What did pollsters say about Reform UK’s surge and Farage’s PM chances?
A pollster described the UK as facing a “political quake,” but others urged caution, questioning assumptions behind Electoral Calculus’ latest prediction.
Techne UK’s latest poll for The Independent reveals Reform UK hitting 31%, a new high, nine points ahead of Labour’s steady 22%. The Tories fall one point to 16%, nearly half Reform’s support.
What did John Curtice say about Reform UK’s path to majority?
Sir John Curtice warned that winning an overall majority isn’t about hitting specific vote figures. He highlighted that the “margin over other parties” and the geographical distribution of support matter most.
He added,
“With a nine-point lead and an evenly spread vote, Reform would be well ahead in seats.”
What did Luke Tryl say about Reform UK’s surge?
Pollster Luke Tryl from More in Common says Reform UK has reached a crucial moment.
He stated,
“It depends if the electorate remains as fragmented as it is now, then 31% will be enough. But if Starmer can consolidate the left, it probably won’t be enough – that’s what happens in Canada [when Mark Carney defeated his rightwing opponents].”
What did Lord Hayward say about Reform’s by-election wins?
Polling expert Lord Hayward said by-elections show Reform’s strength more than polls. They won seats in traditional Tory and Labour areas.
He added,
“You can’t have a more contrasted position than winning in those two areas. Currently, only the Lib Dems can hold their seats against Reform, that is what the by-elections are showing.”
What did Martin Baxter say about Nigel Farage’s majority chances?
Electoral Calculus chief executive Martin Baxter stated,
“On these figures, Nigel Farage would be prime minister with a working majority and no need for a coalition with other parties.”
What did Sir Keir Starmer say about Nigel Farage’s policies?
Sir Keir Starmer described Nigel Farage’s policies as a “mad experiment,” warning he would follow the same path as Liz Truss.
He said,
“Apparently [Mr Farage] is in Las Vegas today at a casino, and it’s not a surprise, because he said that the Liz Truss budget in his view was the best since 1986. That shows his judgment. It shows what he’d do and the result would be exactly the same. I’m not prepared to let that happen.”
What did Zia Yusuf say about Reform’s momentum and the two-party system?
Reform chairman Zia Yusuf stated,
“It is clear that Reform has all the momentum in British politics, and with Labour and the Tories allowing things like immigration and the cost of living to spiral out of control it is no wonder that the British people are turning their backs on the tired two-party system.”
He said,
“Our positive vision for Britain is cutting through and our consistent polling is proof that something is happening out there.”
What did Luke Tryl say about public uncertainty in British politics?
Luke Tryl, the executive director of More in Common UK stated,
“This research underscores just how uncertain the public feels about the direction of British politics. Only 13 per cent of Britons are confident Keir Starmer will remain in post after the next election, while a striking 41 per cent say they simply don’t know what the next elected government will look like.”
He added,
“In fact, the public rate Nigel Farage’s chances of becoming prime minister as highly as those of the current PM, with Reform voters particularly convinced their man will be walking into Downing Street. It’s yet another sign of the Reform leader’s ability to cast a political shadow far larger than his party’s presence in Westminster.”