Since 2018, Ethiopia has experienced a tumultuous journey of war and peace, driven by internal strife and regional tensions. Under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, the country has seen escalating domestic conflicts, many of which have spilled across its borders, destabilizing the Horn of Africa. Abiy’s administration, led by the Prosperity Party, has been heavily influenced by the radical secessionist agenda of Oromo politics. Within months of its inception, the party revealed its true objectives, centered around the Oromo statehood project a long-standing aspiration rooted in the liberation movements of the 1960s.
For Oromo elites, this moment represents a golden opportunity to achieve Aba Beyuma the realization of a sovereign Oromo state. These elites have worked tirelessly to build a unified Oromo identity and advance the statehood agenda. Yet, the vision of a singular Oromo nation remains largely an elite-driven project, with limited resonance among the broader population.
Oromia’s Port Ambitions
The Oromia region, one of Ethiopia’s largest, lacks access to the sea, fuelling a growing desire for a “sea door.” Oromo elites, including Jawar Mohammed, envision uniting all Oromo people across the Horn of Africa, with a port in Somaliland as a strategic centerpiece. Somaliland, a self-declared independent state seeking international recognition, has become a focal point for Oromo political ambitions. The alignment between Somaliland’s quest for recognition and Ethiopia’s need for port access has created a situation where mutual interests converge.
Somaliland, eager to legitimize its statehood, has entered into agreements with Ethiopia without fully assessing the potential risks. Somalia, alarmed by these developments, has turned to the African Union (AU), invoking Article 2 of the AU Charter, which emphasizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states. Despite Somalia’s protests, Ethiopia continues to push forward with its agreements, undermining AU principles and exacerbating regional tensions.
Why Somaliland and What’s at Stake?
The’ Gadabursi’ clan, divided between Ethiopia and Somaliland by colonial-era borders, has become a key player in these dynamics. Historically aligned with the vision of a united Somalia, the Gadabursi people have witnessed the fragmentation of this dream over the past four decades. Oromo politicians have exploited Somalia’s vulnerabilities, aiming first to lease Somaliland’s port and eventually to assimilate the region into an Oromo nation-state.
This strategy mirrors historical patterns of Oromo expansion, where assimilation—whether through persuasion or force has been used to incorporate other groups. Under Abiy Ahmed Ali, viewed by some as a 21st-century “Luba” (Oromo leader), this expansionist agenda has resumed. In Ethiopia, significant portions of Gadabursi land have already been annexed into Oromia, with some locals being reclassified as a “lost Oromo tribe.” The ultimate goal appears to be the integration of the Gadabursi people and the acquisition of Somaliland’s port as a vital asset in the Oromo statehood project.
For Somaliland, the eagerness to achieve independence has led to rushed agreements that may ultimately undermine its sovereignty. Ethiopia’s broader strategy seems poised to dismantle Somaliland as an independent entity, absorbing it into a larger Oromo expansionist agenda.
Somalia’s response and African sovereignty
After decades of internal conflict, Somalia is striving to rebuild and restore national unity. Somaliland’s bid for independence, coupled with Ethiopia’s encroachment, threatens these efforts. Somalia has raised its concerns with the AU and the international community, arguing that its sovereignty is under direct attack. Unfortunately, international responses have been limited, leaving Somalia to seek alternative allies.
Egypt’s interest and the Nile factor
Somalia’s outreach to Egypt has introduced a new dimension to the region’s geopolitics. Egypt, with long-standing interests in the Nile, sees an opportunity to counter Ethiopia’s influence. Historically, Egypt has sought to protect its water rights by engaging with Ethiopian factions. Now, with the rise of the Amhara nationalist group, Fano, Egypt has a new ally in its efforts to secure the Nile.
The Amhara people, custodians of the highlands where the Blue Nile originates, view the Nile as central to their survival. The Ethiopian civil wars have empowered Fano, a well-armed militia that has resisted efforts by the Ethiopian Defense Forces to suppress it. For Egypt, Fano represents a strategic partner, as both share a mutual interest in countering the current Ethiopian government.
Fano’s resistance to what it perceives as a genocidal regime under Abiy Ahmed Ali aligns with Egypt’s desire to ensure uninterrupted access to the Nile’s waters. While Fano has no interest in depriving Egypt of its water resources, any agreements regarding the Nile must have the consent of the Amhara people, who serve as its local stewards.
The boarder implications for African unity
Africa’s borders, a legacy of colonialism, are upheld by the AU’s principle of respecting the sovereignty of existing states. Abiy Ahmed Ali’s interference in Somalia and Somaliland threatens to undermine this fragile stability. Across the continent, numerous secessionist movements pose challenges to national unity, and external influences risk exacerbating these divisions.
The Horn of Africa, already beset by civil wars and humanitarian crises, cannot afford further destabilization. The prospect of mass migration from the region to Europe and the West looms large, highlighting the global stakes of these conflicts. To mitigate these risks, key actors—including Somalia, Egypt, and the Amhara-led Fano movement must collaborate to uphold sovereignty, counter destabilizing forces, and promote regional stability.
Conclusion
The Horn of Africa stands at a crossroads, with its future shaped by the interplay of domestic politics, regional ambitions, and international interests. Ethiopia’s internal conflicts, Oromo expansionist agendas, and Somaliland’s bid for recognition are reshaping the region’s geopolitical landscape. Meanwhile, Somalia’s efforts to preserve its sovereignty, coupled with Egypt’s strategic interests in the Nile, add further complexity to this volatile equation.
The path forward requires a concerted effort to uphold African unity, respect sovereignty, and address the root causes of conflict. Failure to act could plunge the region and the continent into deeper instability, with far-reaching consequences for global peace and security.