PARIS (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Emmanuel Macron won a clear victory in the 2022 presidential election, but to implement his program, he will need to have a majority in the National Assembly. The re-elected president is therefore working to reframe the investiture.
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The Essentials
- The final result of the 2022 presidential election records the clear victory of Emmanuel Macron, despite a record abstention rate.
- Emmanuel Macron must now turn to the legislative elections. Elections that promise to be complicated for him, and could force him into a coalition or cohabitation in the event of a severe defeat. Faced with left-wing parties negotiating lists with single candidates per constituency and the far right at a historically high level, LREM will probably have to turn quickly to new political partners to hope for a political victory in the legislative elections, which would allow it to obtain a majority, even a relative one. According to an Ifop poll published yesterday, 68% of French people want “a majority of deputies to come from the opposition”.
- “If Mélenchon succeeds in uniting the left around him, he becomes our number one opponent,” a minister told Le Figaro. The newspaper adds that François Bayrou “alerts” Emmanuel Macron on the risks of “secession” of part of the country, “aggravated in his eyes by a lack of representation”.
- Emmanuel Macron, obviously concerned, would therefore have taken charge of the list of LREM candidates for these June elections. According to information from France Info, the re-elected president should look in detail at the names proposed in each constituency and carry out a certain number of arbitrations.
In the Macron camp, the union of the left around Mélenchon worries
The current negotiations between La France Insoumise, the Communist Party and Europe Ecologie les Verts do not leave the current majority indifferent. On the contrary, according to sources from Le Figaro. “If Mélenchon succeeds in uniting the left around him, he becomes our number one opponent”, says Emmanuel Macron. A prospect that Macron’s team seems to dread. “We risk having a big problem: a main opposition on the far left, while the far right has reached more than 40% of the votes in the presidential election”, points out a close friend of the head of state. A situation that could cause a form of “secession” of part of the population, warns François Bayrou.
What are the next political deadlines?
On Wednesday April 27, the final results of the presidential election will be officially announced by the Constitutional Council. From this proclamation, the investiture of Emmanuel Macron should take place before May 13. Finally, heading for the legislative elections, the first round of which will take place on Sunday June 12, and the second round a week later, on Sunday June 19. In the meantime, according to what Prime Minister Jean Castex has suggested, the latter could well present the resignation of the government to the President of the Republic, who would then carry out a ministerial reshuffle even before the legislative elections.
39% of French people want to see France Insoumise emerge stronger from the legislative elections
In a poll, Ipsos asked the French which parties they wanted to see strengthened, and which weakened, after the legislative elections, which will take place in mid-June. Results: the party that we most want to see strengthened is none other than Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Insoumise: 39% of respondents want it to be strengthened, while 29% want it to be weakened. The National Gathering also received 38% of positive wishes, but 36% of negative wishes. On the other hand, the French do not have many ambitions for La République en Marche: 26% of respondents say they want it to get stronger, but 38% want it to weaken.
Emmanuel Macron grand arbiter of his party’s legislative nominations
For La République en Marche as for the other parties, it will be a question in the coming weeks of selecting, for each electoral district, candidates to present to the legislative elections. And in this task, Emmanuel Macron should play a key role. According to information from Franceinfo, the head of state, re-elected last night in the second round of the election, will himself go through the list of contenders for the nomination of the presidential majority, in the week, and arbitrate who may be presented with LREM colors.
