ASHTON-IN-MAKERFIELD, June 15 (Parliament Politics Magazine) – Andy Burnham is campaigning to win the parliamentary seat in Makerfield, a contest that could provide the platform he needs to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the leadership of the country. If the Greater Manchester Mayor succeeds in the upcoming election, his victory may be attributed as much to a fracture among his right-wing opponents as to his own political platform.
A fractured opposition
The election in this northern England constituency has become one of the most consequential contests in modern British politics. With approximately 77,000 voters, the result could impact the direction of the government for nearly 70 million people. Current opinion polls indicate that Burnham maintains a lead of between five and 12 points over his closest challenger.
This advantage is largely viewed as the result of the populist right-wing vote being split between two rival parties. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and the breakaway group Restore Britain, led by Rupert Lowe, are competing for the same electorate. These parties are led by two men who were previously colleagues before an acrimonious split occurred last year.
The impact of the divide
For many voters in the region, the division creates a difficult choice. Peter Thompson, who operates a record shop in Ashton-in-Makerfield, expressed his intention to support Reform UK but voiced concerns regarding the impact of the splinter party.
“If it was a straightforward fight, I think Reform may well edge it but because there’s that many parties that you can vote for now, I think it will swing it to Labour’s advantage, unfortunately,” Thompson said.
Recent polling data suggests Restore Britain is capturing between 7% and 8% of the vote in the constituency. Farage has publicly warned that this split threatens to deliver a victory to Labour. Reform UK previously performed strongly in the area, winning 24 of 25 Wigan Borough Council seats in local elections held on May 7.
Burnham’s political vision
Burnham has framed his candidacy around the economic challenges faced by the North of England, pointing to a legacy of industrial decline. He promotes what he describes as “business friendly socialism,” focusing on improving local access to housing and essential services. This approach targets voters who feel neglected by decades of national economic policies.
Despite the intensity of the campaign, political analysts note that the demographic of the area is shifting. Rob Ford, a professor of politics at the University of Manchester, characterized the seat as having a “Red Wall” heritage while noting that it is now populated by aspirational middle-class commuters. Labour has deployed significant resources to defend the constituency, including visits from cabinet ministers and senior lawmakers. While the national party management oversees the campaign, the ultimate outcome depends on local voters who prioritize community representation.
