UK (Parliament Politic Magazine) – Voters will head to the polls in two by-elections that could demonstrate the scale of the main political parties’ challenges ahead of a national contest later this year. Rishi Sunak is braced for difficulties in Wellingborough and Kingswood, where Labour expects to flip Tory majorities in the tens of thousands. Headlines this week have been overwhelmed by a different by-election – the upcoming Rochdale vote, in which Labour’s candidate has had party permission withdrawn over remarks he made about Israel and Jewish people.
However, Thursday’s results will also be meaningful, with a Tory defeat in either constituency suggesting that the Government has clocked up more by-election losses in a single parliament than any administration since the 1960s.
Both votes are mostly seen as two-horse races between Labour and the Conservatives – though the Tories are also endangered by strengthening support for Reform UK, which targets disgruntled voters on the right.
The possibilities surrounding the by-elections could also prove challenging for the governing party. Kingswood’s vote was initiated by Chris Skidmore’s resignation as an MP in protest at Government legislation to increase North Sea oil and gas drilling.
He succeeded the Gloucestershire constituency for the Tories at the past four general elections, before which Labour held it at every general election since 1992. The Opposition requires a much smaller swing to overturn the Conservative majority of 23% than the ones it recently secured in Tamworth, Selby Ainsty, and Mid Bedfordshire.
The by-election in Wellingborough comes after former Tory MP Peter Bone accepted a six-week suspension from the Commons when an inquiry discovered he had subjected a staff member to bullying and sexual misconduct.
He succeeded the Northamptonshire constituency at every general election from 2005 to 2019, with Labour coming second in four contests and Ukip in 2015. His majority in 2019 was 36%.
The swing Labor requires to win the seat is at 17.9 percentage points – in other words, the equivalent of a net change of 18 in every 100 people who voted Tory in 2019 switching flanks.
This is still a minor swing compared to the ones managed by Labour in 2023 at the by-elections in Tamworth, Selby & Ainsty, and Mid Bedfordshire.
According to the latest voting preference poll from Savanta, the lead relished by Labour over the Conservatives has dropped by seven points after a turbulent couple of weeks for the party.
In national opinion polls, Sir Keir Starmer’s party has held a sustained double-digit advantage over the Tories. Still, the past week has been overshadowed by criticism of remarks made by Rochdale candidate Azhar Ali.
Mr. Ali apologized after he was documented during a meeting of Lancashire Labour members suggesting that Israel had taken Hamas’ October 7 attack as a pretext to invade Gaza.
The party leadership originally stood by him but withdrew its backing after the Daily Mail reported he had also blamed “people in the media from certain Jewish quarters” for suspending Labour MP Andy McDonald.
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A second parliamentary candidate, Graham Jones, was discontinued on Tuesday after audio obtained by the website Guido Fawkes seemed to show the former Labour MP using abusive language at the same meeting Mr Ali attended. Polls open at 7 am and close at 10 pm on Thursday, with the results expected to be declared in both constituencies sometime after 4 am.